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Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

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Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by bogbrush on Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:38 am

Interesting conundrum for Fed fans; do you want Djokovic to win today?

Personally, I see it two ways. Djokovic, if he makes the final, must be "back" and would quite possibly/probably beat Federer. Therefore you'd want him out. On the other hand, he and Nadal may well do some damage to each other in which case have him in. I suppose there are some who would take the "anyone but Nadal" route but I don't really see it that way, a Federer / Nadal match provided Fed has come through unscathed from his quarter / semi is a finely balanced match and Federer would go in feeling vastly happier than he did 10 years ago, when he was having a Hell of a year losing to all sorts of people he'd previously completely owned.

So I'm not entirely sure; Djokovic to try to set up a wearing semi, or Nishikori just to take an incredibly difficult opponent out of the tournament. I can see myself cheering / regretting every point (or ignoring it because the debate is pointless unless Federer beats Anderson!).

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by Slippy on Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:46 am

I think you’d want him out surely? With a days rest, neither Rafa or Novak are likely to be overly bothered by a long SF. Novak has shown he can cause Fed real problems with his return game even on the grass. I’m unconvinced Rafa would pose as great a threat.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by summerblues on Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:33 am

Not the conundrum I see.  I still see Rafa as the hardest opponent for Fed because of the match-up - their recent results notwithstanding.

Nole is not a particularly bad match-up for Fed.  Fed's losses to Nole in 2014-15 came because Nole played a much better tennis than Fed back then.  If anything, Fed made those matches closer than their overall level of play would suggest.  Fed is playing better now than then.  This Fed would beat 2014-15 Nole, and he would beat 2018 Nole more easily still.

My conundrum is this: on one hand, Nole could beat Rafa and make life easier for Fed in the final (if Fed gets there).  On the other hand, it would be just nice to see Nole lose early.

Overall, I am rooting for Nishi (but I cannot see him winning).

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by barrystar on Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:19 am

I find it very easy - Djoko to win today because he has the best chance of beating or winging Nadal if the latter makes the SF.  Federer would face a hugely tough final against either of them, and if someone other than Federer has to win, I'd rather it were Djoko than Nadal because of the slam tally situation.

Best of all would be a Federer win after a Fedal final, next best would be Fed beating Djoko in the final; worst would be a Nadal win whoever he faces in SF or F.  

Ultimately us Federer fans have to do what the great man himself does and take each of his matches as they come.  Regardless of slam tallies &c &c, the other day John McEnroe reminded us of the essential truth of Fed's game for his fans, something which can never be taken from him, namely that Fed plays the game more beautifully than anyone he's ever seen.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by naxroy on Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:32 am

I think, one last nadal federer in a wimbledon final would be great


bigger than anyother combination now.


fed is better than both nadal or nole right now, specially on grass


but a match is a match, sometimes the better player has a bad day

and that can happen to federer with both rafa and novak

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by gallery play on Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:40 am

barrystar wrote:
Best of all would be a Federer win after a Fedal final
, next best would be Fed beating Djoko in the final; worst would be a Nadal win whoever he faces in SF or F.  

Agreed, but i prefer to have the exitement twice: once for Nadal losing the semi and once for Fed winning the final.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by naxroy on Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:51 am

for all that excitement, first they all need to get to the semis


and rafa has the toughest opponent I think

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by gallery play on Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:55 am

naxroy wrote:for all that excitement, first they all need to get to the semis


and rafa has the toughest opponent I think
Nadal will beat Delpo in three easy sets. No jinx

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by legendkillar on Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:01 am

I think it matters not who wins to be honest. In the unlikely event, but possible that both Djokovic and Nadal get knocked out, fans would be trying to temper expectation. So whilst this might cause concern for Fed fans that Djokovic and Nadal meet offers one of them as a guaranteed finalist, doom and gloom will ring out. 

I still think the tournament rests on the racquet of Federer. I wouldn't be concerned with Nadal making the final given that Roger has had the better of him in their last 5 meetings. He's not tasted a Nadal defeat in over 4 years. That's a huge boost for Federer's confidence rather than Nadal's. Reminds me of when Djokovic finally got the edge of Nadal in their rivalry when you could see some fear in Nadal's play. I see some of that now in his rivalry with Federer in recent times. The tried and tested BH pummelling no longer works and I am not so sure Nadal has worked out a way to overcome that. Plus it would be on Grass which is more Roger's turf than Nadal's.

Djokovic poses the most interesting problem as I don't think anyone has an idea how he would play against Federer should their paths cross. He still looks out of sorts and really goes walkabout in matches. That is something I could see Federer exploiting.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by Slippy on Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:08 am

summerblues wrote:Not the conundrum I see.  I still see Rafa as the hardest opponent for Fed because of the match-up - their recent results notwithstanding.

Nole is not a particularly bad match-up for Fed.  Fed's losses to Nole in 2014-15 came because Nole played a much better tennis than Fed back then.  If anything, Fed made those matches closer than their overall level of play would suggest.  Fed is playing better now than then.  This Fed would beat 2014-15 Nole, and he would beat 2018 Nole more easily still.

My conundrum is this: on one hand, Nole could beat Rafa and make life easier for Fed in the final (if Fed gets there).  On the other hand, it would be just nice to see Nole lose early.

Overall, I am rooting for Nishi (but I cannot see him winning).
Fed isn’t playing better than 2014-15. Up until the final in each of those years he looked sensational. Arguably, he is playing just as well but I don’t think there is any evidence he is playing better. 

What happened in both those years was that, when faced with Novak in the final, his level (particularly on serve) dipped relatively significantly. I suspect that was a combination of it being a slam final and also the pressure Novak’s great returning can apply. The two key questions, if they meet, are how close Novak is to his 14–15 level and whether Fed will avoid a similar dip this time. 

Against anyone else, I’d expect Fed’s serve to give him the security he needs to allow him to overcome any final nerves. Anyone thinking Nadal is a greater threat to Fed on a grass court than Novak is vastly overrated Nadal’s record against Fed on faster surfaces.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by DEC1M7 on Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:21 am

Doesn’t matter if Djokovic wins today, Nadal will wipe him out in the semi.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by Slippy on Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:22 am

DEC1M7 wrote:Doesn’t matter if Djokovic wins today, Nadal will wipe him out in the semi.
Has your account been hacked?

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by DEC1M7 on Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:28 am

Slippy wrote:
DEC1M7 wrote:Doesn’t matter if Djokovic wins today, Nadal will wipe him out in the semi.
Has your account been hacked?
Nope.
Nadal and Djokovic have both played quite well so far this tournament, untroubled really.
However I still think Djokovic ahead of a big match will get nervous, perhaps play too conservatively, and Nadal will dictate the baseline rallies. Nadal in 4 for that semi imo.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by barrystar on Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:45 am

Slippy wrote:
summerblues wrote:Not the conundrum I see.  I still see Rafa as the hardest opponent for Fed because of the match-up - their recent results notwithstanding.

Nole is not a particularly bad match-up for Fed.  Fed's losses to Nole in 2014-15 came because Nole played a much better tennis than Fed back then.  If anything, Fed made those matches closer than their overall level of play would suggest.  Fed is playing better now than then.  This Fed would beat 2014-15 Nole, and he would beat 2018 Nole more easily still.

My conundrum is this: on one hand, Nole could beat Rafa and make life easier for Fed in the final (if Fed gets there).  On the other hand, it would be just nice to see Nole lose early.

Overall, I am rooting for Nishi (but I cannot see him winning).
Fed isn’t playing better than 2014-15. Up until the final in each of those years he looked sensational. Arguably, he is playing just as well but I don’t think there is any evidence he is playing better. 

What happened in both those years was that, when faced with Novak in the final, his level (particularly on serve) dipped relatively significantly. I suspect that was a combination of it being a slam final and also the pressure Novak’s great returning can apply. The two key questions, if they meet, are how close Novak is to his 14–15 level and whether Fed will avoid a similar dip this time. 

Against anyone else, I’d expect Fed’s serve to give him the security he needs to allow him to overcome any final nerves. Anyone thinking Nadal is a greater threat to Fed on a grass court than Novak is vastly overrated Nadal’s record against Fed on faster surfaces.

I would agree that Fed's demolition of Murray in the 2015 SF was nothing short of sensational, but he was much further from Djoko in the 2015 final than the 2014 final - Djoko's level that year was other-worldly.

I don't think comparisons involving transposing Fed/Nadal/Djoko in 2014-2015 are a very useful guide to what will happen in the next handful of days.  They are all different - Fed has got to grips with his new racquet with the resulting benefits for his serve and his b/h and his h2h vs. Nadal, but if someone is capable of really putting it to him he moves less well and tires a bit more easily, Djoko has changed racquet, body mass, and service action after his injury, Nadal is trying to play shorter points.  They are all 4-3 years older and more experienced for good and for ill - each has won slams and had to come back from the near tennis-dead at least once in the intervening period.  The only thing that has not changed is their primeval will to win and to improve.  I think the result of all those changes is that, all other tings being equal, on grass Federer is marginally better placed with his different game vs. both Djoko and Nadal than he would have been in 2014-2015; but he is at more risk of being materially affected for the worse by tough matches in QF and SF.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by Slippy on Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:13 pm

I don’t particularly disagree with most of that. My only comment is that I’m fairly sure Fed would have beaten Rafa on grass comfortably in 2014-15, given their respective games at that time. If so, even if he is marginally better placed now against both of them, Rafa would clearly still be the preferred opponent. 

Query though the suggestion Fed tires more easily. Whilst I suspect it is true that he would struggle more to play long matches in consecutive days or a succession of tournaments back to back, there has been no suggestion of him struggling in one-off slams. Indeed, his 5 set record is vastly improved - including several otherworldly 5th set displays, when he has looked much fresher than his opponents.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by barrystar on Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:52 pm

Slippy wrote:I don’t particularly disagree with most of that. My only comment is that I’m fairly sure Fed would have beaten Rafa on grass comfortably in 2014-15, given their respective games at that time. If so, even if he is marginally better placed now against both of them, Rafa would clearly still be the preferred opponent. 

Query though the suggestion Fed tires more easily. Whilst I suspect it is true that he would struggle more to play long matches in consecutive days or a succession of tournaments back to back, there has been no suggestion of him struggling in one-off slams. Indeed, his 5 set record is vastly improved - including several otherworldly 5th set displays, when he has looked much fresher than his opponents.

You might be leaning rather heavily on the AO 2017 for that comment, when he was fresh as a daisy after his layoff - he had a couple of 5-setters at the USO which he pulled through with a dodgy back, and he outlasted Cilic at AO 2018, but I was more thinking of his weary performances at Indian Wells and Miami this year, being slightly below part at Halle, and his defeat to Goffin last year.

The point is that accumulations of effort hit him harder than they used to.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by Emancipator on Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:47 pm

Slippy wrote:I don’t particularly disagree with most of that. My only comment is that I’m fairly sure Fed would have beaten Rafa on grass comfortably in 2014-15, given their respective games at that time. If so, even if he is marginally better placed now against both of them, Rafa would clearly still be the preferred opponent. 

Query though the suggestion Fed tires more easily. Whilst I suspect it is true that he would struggle more to play long matches in consecutive days or a succession of tournaments back to back, there has been no suggestion of him struggling in one-off slams. Indeed, his 5 set record is vastly improved - including several otherworldly 5th set displays, when he has looked much fresher than his opponents.

I agree.

Novak, as I said before the start of the tournament, is the biggest threat.

So most definitely would prefer him to lose today.

I feel fairly confident that Federer would beat Nadal and would probably also make him favourite against Djokovic. Howoeverout of the two, Djokovic is clearly the bigger threat.

Of course this has to be weighed with the consequences of a defeat to Rafa in the final - that would be disasterous for his legacy. In contrast a defeat to Djokovic in the final makes virtually no difference at all.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by Emancipator on Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:05 pm

I do think Federer is returning better than in 2014-15. More aggressive on the return and without having the stats to hand, and using just the eye test, he seems to be creating more break point opportunities.

Of course the opposition so far at W has been pretty straightforward.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by Daniel on Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:17 pm

Anyone can beat Nishikori.  Djok's challenge will be v Nadal / Del Potro  and against the finalist.  I reckon he'd have it easier v Nadal.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by naxroy on Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:17 pm

Daniel wrote:Anyone can beat Nishikori.  Djok's challenge will be v Nadal / Del Potro  and against the finalist.  I reckon he'd have it easier v Nadal.


as h2h suggests

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by summerblues on Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:44 pm

Slippy wrote:Fed isn’t playing better than 2014-15 [...]
I was planning to respond to this post, but in light of yesterday's events I will not Sad

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by Daniel on Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:46 pm

naxroy wrote:
Daniel wrote:Anyone can beat Nishikori.  Djok's challenge will be v Nadal / Del Potro  and against the finalist.  I reckon he'd have it easier v Nadal.


as h2h suggests

You checked the h2h the last 10 or so times they've played, fanboy.  And this is grass.

Btw,... Djok is ahead of Nadal in H2H.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by summerblues on Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:51 pm

Would that be a fanboy, or a fangirl?

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by Daniel on Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:52 pm

summerblues wrote:Would that be a fanboy, or a fangirl?

I use fanboy as gender neutral.  Like fireman.  I am not PC.  Thumbs Up
And we can't be sure "she" really is a she.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by summerblues on Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:59 pm

Interesting.  For me fireman as gender neutral works only in generic references.  E.g., "firemen came to the scene...".  But I would say "firewoman Jane Doe" rather than "fireman Jane Doe".  I am not a native speaker though, and I do not really know what I am talking about.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by break_in_the_fifth on Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:04 am

I'm cool with Djokovic winning his 4th title. His return of serve is a legit skill and his services to tennis keeping Nadal at bay are much appreciated for more than just protecting Federer's legacy. If he hadn't stopped Nadal all those times then it really would have looked like that boring 1D game was invincible as opposed to it being shown to be beatable but with no one at the time up to the task.

Those finals Fed lost were annoying and probably going to prove legacy denying but tbh when Federer loses to him, it feels like Djokovic properly beat him so no major complaints there.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by break_in_the_fifth on Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:06 am

Before these quarters though I'd probably have preferred Del Potro or, after beating Fed, Kevin Anderson to win.

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Re: Fed fans; Djokovic to win or lose today?

Post by break_in_the_fifth on Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:07 am

Can solve that one by saying fireperson  and firepeople Big Grin

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