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Expectations for Wimbledon

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Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by gallery play on Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:08 am

I've slept on yesterdays deception and i must say i'll be surprised if Federer wins Wimbledon. He's too fragile at the moment. Coric played well but realistically he's third round material at Wimbledon at best(after winning Halle he has a career w/l ratio of 7-7 on grass..). 

So, what do i expect? Much depends on the conditions. I thought Stuttgart was lightning fast, Halle was -like always- in a bad shape and mediocre fast, Queens had-like always- proper grasscourts. Last year the first week of Wimbledon was dead slow, after watering the grass it became a lot quicker in the second week. Obviously there's a whole lot to manipulate by the TD's..

Anyway, my thoughts (bearing in mind there won't be "Stuttgart fast" courts): 

1. Federer to be beaten by Cilic or Nole before the final
2. Nadal won't get Cilic and Nole in his half  (on strict TD's orders)
3. If they don't water the grass on middle sunday: Nadal to make it further than Federer
4. Cilic to win Wimbledon (admittedly, this is also a bit of teaser for Nitb and Tenez Winking )
5. And then the fifth key player (Kyrgios): he'll shine before he'll self-destruct in the fourth or quarters


What do y'all expect?

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by naxroy on Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:52 am

I expect a new champion

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by Slippy on Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:54 am

The field looks fairly weak to me. Fed to win easily - dropping no more than 2 sets.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by Slippy on Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:55 am

naxroy wrote:I expect a new champion
Big call. Cilic would seem to be the only real option?

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by naxroy on Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:59 am

Slippy wrote:
naxroy wrote:I expect a new champion
Big call. Cilic would seem to be the only real option?


cilic is a strong option, but even if its not him... I sense it

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by gallery play on Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:05 pm

Slippy wrote:The field looks fairly weak to me. Fed to win easily - dropping no more than 2 sets.
Easily? I looked like he aged 10 years the last 2 weeks...

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by gallery play on Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:06 pm

naxroy wrote:
Slippy wrote:
naxroy wrote:I expect a new champion
Big call. Cilic would seem to be the only real option?


cilic is a strong option, but even if its not him... I sense it
Any other names?

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by naxroy on Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:24 pm

gallery play wrote:
naxroy wrote:
Slippy wrote:
naxroy wrote:I expect a new champion
Big call. Cilic would seem to be the only real option?


cilic is a strong option, but even if its not him... I sense it
Any other names?


kyrgios, raonic, delpo

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by noleisthebest on Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:35 pm

OK....

Despite Fed looking fragile and edgy yesterday....and losing to CORIC (!!!) who btw didn't play that badly, I can't or more - don't want to see anyone else win Wimbledon.
But it's going to be super hard, similar to AO where he did it by the skin of his teeth. I am hoping CC do something to his head and bring some flight in those legs.

I don't think Nadal will play.

Cilic is a firm second favourite.

Nole...no idea, he is lacking stamina even or best of three, maybe he is playing clean now.

Delpo can have a decent run if he is healthy.

Kyrgios is a headcase so much will depend on his  draw. Def a banana skin to be avoided.

I think Shapo is still a tennis baby whose confidence is probably even lower now than last year as he lost early in Stuttgart.

Kev has the game and the form but I think his head is gone for ever after that loss to Schwartzy in 5 in RG.

Maybe Querrey? Yikes

A LOT will depend on the draw, so let's talk on Thursday!

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by bogbrush on Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:43 pm

gallery play wrote:
Slippy wrote:The field looks fairly weak to me. Fed to win easily - dropping no more than 2 sets.
Easily? I looked like he aged 10 years the last 2 weeks...
Two events of the type he just played over two weeks is a far tougher task than a two week Slam.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by noleisthebest on Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:44 pm

TDs in Wimbledon are known for liking fancy draws so anything can be expected.

Ideally, Nadal doesn't play and Cilic is 2nd seed with Nole and Kyrgios and Raonic in bottom half.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by gallery play on Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:59 pm

bogbrush wrote:
gallery play wrote:
Slippy wrote:The field looks fairly weak to me. Fed to win easily - dropping no more than 2 sets.
Easily? I looked like he aged 10 years the last 2 weeks...
Two events of the type he just played over two weeks is a far tougher task than a two week Slam.
You're suggesting he'll only be playing 3 set matches...

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by gallery play on Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:00 pm

noleisthebest wrote:TDs in Wimbledon are known for liking fancy draws so anything can be expected.

Ideally, Nadal doesn't play and Cilic is 2nd seed with Nole and Kyrgios and Raonic in bottom half.
Nadal will play. He smells blood now and wants to defend his top spot.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by bogbrush on Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:18 pm

gallery play wrote:
bogbrush wrote:
gallery play wrote:
Slippy wrote:The field looks fairly weak to me. Fed to win easily - dropping no more than 2 sets.
Easily? I looked like he aged 10 years the last 2 weeks...
Two events of the type he just played over two weeks is a far tougher task than a two week Slam.
You're suggesting he'll only be playing 3 set matches...
Yeah, early on hopefully. I think even a 4-setter with rest isn't as hard as what he's just been doing. It's the lack of rest day.

Also with W he'll be on Centre all the way through and the roof means progress will stay up to date.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by noleisthebest on Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:30 pm

gallery play wrote:
noleisthebest wrote:TDs in Wimbledon are known for liking fancy draws so anything can be expected.

Ideally, Nadal doesn't play and Cilic is 2nd seed with Nole and Kyrgios and Raonic in bottom half.
Nadal will play. He smells blood now and wants to defend his top spot.
That sounds so sinister!

It would be a total disaster...if he were to turn up in Wimbledon, he'll probably have a long list of players for TD who he doesn't want in the draw. But I expect Fed also may have decent support in those quarters with the old school "boys".

A lot will be happening behind the scenes.

Still, it's been a long time since Nadal made it to week two. Big Grin And maybe he wants to preserve his "aura" so he doesn't show up...that's my hope, anyway.

Murray seems to be keen on playing (he's taken WC in Eastbourne), and I can't imagine him having a terrible draw - he may end up in Nadal's quarter as I'm sure he'd rather play him than Fed.

Nole will be dispensable as usual and end up with the Kyrgios, Delpo, Raonic etc...

I still think Fed will come out alright somehow.

A bad loss in Wimbledon could be the end in his heart. I can't imagine him wanting to play much longer if that happens.

I still think Fed will do it.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by noleisthebest on Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:55 pm

Here comes the list of Wimbledon seeds:



1) Roger Federer

2) Rafael Nadal

3) Marin Cilic

4) Alexander Zverev

5) Juan Martin del Potro

6) Grigor Dimitrov

7) Dominic Thiem

8) Kevin Anderson

9) John Isner

10) David Goffin

11) Sam Querrey

12) Novak Djokovic

13) Milos Raonic

14) Roberto Bautista Agut

15) Diego Schwartzman

16) Nick Kyrgios

17) Borna Coric

18) Lucas Rouille

19) Jack Sock

20) Fabio Fognini

21) Pablo Carreno Busta

22) Kyle Edmund

23) Adrian Mannarino

24) Richard Gasquet

25) Kei Nishikori

26) Hyeon Chung

27) Philipp Kolschreiber

28) Denis Shapovalov

29) Damir Dzumhur

30) Filip Krajinovic

31) Marco Cecchinato

32) Fernando Verdasco

Scary to see some names (Cecchinato eg - however much I liked him as a player)...Krajinovic is injured, so  not sure he'll play, Chung, too, Dimi has lost the plot, Sock, Pouille, Mannarino are all going to be knocked out early....there are probably better players outside the seeds list who can make real trouble in early rounds - Muller, Brown if he qualifies etc....
Nole's seeding has been bumped up by 5 places, so he is now at number 12....if only Murray had a baby...

Can't wait for the draw!

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by noleisthebest on Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:14 pm

So Nadal is playing just saw he is preparing in some exo tournament:

“It’s always great to play in front of UK fans so I can’t wait to return,” said Nadal. “I’m working hard and this is the perfect way to warm up for Wimbledon.”

GP, you were right... Sad

Well, I hope he gets knocked out early and in style.
What is Sir Rosol doing these days?
Wouldn't that be a very Wimbledon R1 match? Cool



Nole will finish him off if everyone else fails! Bubbly

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by naxroy on Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:40 pm

Ideal path for nadal


semis) Alexander Zverev
quarters) Dominic Thiem
4th) Roberto Bautista Agut
3rd) Damir Dzumhur
2nd) david ferrer
1st) lorenzi


killer path for nadal

semis) cilic
quarters) djokovic 
4th) Nick Kyrgios
3rd) Hyeon Chung
2nd) muller
1st) Mischa Zverev

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by legendkillar on Mon Jun 25, 2018 6:09 pm

Think Djokovic might turn in a good run....

Just a feeling I have.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by noleisthebest on Mon Jun 25, 2018 6:25 pm

Btw, now that we know Nadal is playing, what does everyone think of his chances?

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by gallery play on Mon Jun 25, 2018 6:33 pm

noleisthebest wrote:Btw, now that we know Nadal is playing, what does everyone think of his chances?
Depends on what the TD's want. They could give him dry milimeter-cut-grass and an easy draw of course. Naxroy's list could be not far off, with the killer list for Federer.

I just think TD's from now on want a new chapter in the history books: Nadal to break the slam record. I know Krajicek would offer a toe (or 2) for it..

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by noleisthebest on Mon Jun 25, 2018 6:39 pm

gallery play wrote:
noleisthebest wrote:Btw, now that we know Nadal is playing, what does everyone think of his chances?
Depends on what the TD's want. They could give him dry milimeter-cut-grass and an easy draw of course. Naxroy's list could be not far off, with the killer list for Federer.

I just think TD's from now on want a new chapter in the history books: Nadal to break the slam record. I know Krajicek would offer a toe (or 2) for it..
Laugh
Seriously, what is the matter with that man?

I would like to believe TD will not go Nadal way in Wimbledon.
The weather’s been really warm in the UK in te last few weeks and getting even hotter this week, over 30 degrees...so they will probably water the grass heavily to keep it green for next week.

I dunno what that will mean when the rubber hits the turf, but I know one thing -  Wimbledon was not meant to be for Nadal in the last 5 years...I have rewatched this clip with Rosol a few times (can’t get enough!) and he really looks like sent direct from God, the force really was with Sir Rosol in a special way that day...same as with Darcis,  Brown, etc...the easier the draw was fixed, the more spectacular the exit...oh how sweet every one was! Big Grin
I am hoping for more of the same.

The record chase farce will probably continue in RG II - USO. By the time that happens, Nole and Murray and probably a few others are going to make the draw a bit more competitive than last year.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by Slippy on Mon Jun 25, 2018 6:59 pm

I’m struggling a bit with the concept that Mischa Zverev would be a harder first round draw for Nadal then Andy Murray!

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by naxroy on Mon Jun 25, 2018 10:33 pm

Slippy wrote:I’m struggling a bit with the concept that Mischa Zverev would be a harder first round draw for Nadal then Andy Murray!


correct

didnt think of that chance

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by summerblues on Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:27 am

I still think it is Federer's to lose.  Yesterday's loss dents my confidence a little, but between Fed probably not wanting to go all out, him being a little tired, and Coric playing surprisingly well, I do not see that one loss changing the equation whole lot.  Other than that, I thought Fed looked quite good over the last couple of weeks.

So I go with Fed.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by summerblues on Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:29 am

If there is one thing with what I agree 100% on this thread, it is this:

gallery play wrote:Nadal will play. He smells blood now

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by Emancipator on Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:20 am

gallery play wrote:
2. Nadal won't get Cilic and Nole in his half  (on strict TD's orders)

Decent OP until this, at which point you lost all credibility, unless of course this was tongue in cheek

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by Emancipator on Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:21 am

Slippy wrote:The field looks fairly weak to me. Fed to win easily - dropping no more than 2 sets.

Really? The field is much stronger than clay and looks far more unpredictable than last year

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by barrystar on Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:52 am

Emancipator wrote:
Slippy wrote:The field looks fairly weak to me. Fed to win easily - dropping no more than 2 sets.

Really? The field is much stronger than clay and looks far more unpredictable than last year

I agree - Fed has looked more vulnerable on all surfaces this year than the same time last year, Nadal has looked just as solid on clay but a bit more vulnerable off it, Cilic and Del Boy have put increased exposure on the highest stage behind them, and Kyrgios is hovering around, not to mention various youngsters being a year more experienced and tougher.

Also, conditions-wise, think what this week of broiling sun will do to the grass - it's not going to favour Fed.

Writing Federer off on grass is daft, but to me it feels way more open than 2017 did.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by noleisthebest on Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:59 am

Emancipator wrote:
gallery play wrote:
2. Nadal won't get Cilic and Nole in his half  (on strict TD's orders)

Decent OP until this, at which point you lost all credibility, unless of course this was tongue in cheek

In your eyes only....maybe you need to open them and see what goes on.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by naxroy on Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:03 pm

no only in his/her eyes

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by Slippy on Tue Jun 26, 2018 1:32 pm

barrystar wrote:
Emancipator wrote:
Slippy wrote:The field looks fairly weak to me. Fed to win easily - dropping no more than 2 sets.

Really? The field is much stronger than clay and looks far more unpredictable than last year

I agree - Fed has looked more vulnerable on all surfaces this year than the same time last year, Nadal has looked just as solid on clay but a bit more vulnerable off it, Cilic and Del Boy have put increased exposure on the highest stage behind them, and Kyrgios is hovering around, not to mention various youngsters being a year more experienced and tougher.

Also, conditions-wise, think what this week of broiling sun will do to the grass - it's not going to favour Fed.

Writing Federer off on grass is daft, but to me it feels way more open than 2017 did.
On clay, there was a reasonable question of whether Thiem and Zverev would step up their good results in the lead up events and put pressure on Rafa. I just don’t see that on grass. Both of those “youngsters” are unlikely to have any impact so we are left with the main challengers to Fed being:

1. Novak (still questionable whether his form and fitness is there and grass is, arguably, his weakest surface - notwithstanding he’s a three time Wimbledon champ!

2. Cilic - good form at Queens but has come up short often in slams and faded from a potentially winning position against Fed at the Australian. 

3. Kyrgios - probably the most natural of the youngsters on grass but still a head case. Very unlikely he will have the mental fortitude to win 7 matches on grass.

4. Raonic - very little form to speak of and too one-dimensional to trouble any of the big 4 on form. Serve also looks to have lost some pop.

I just can’t see any of those options troubling Fed significantly unless he is well short of his usual slam form. I’d read nothing into Halle as my impression was Fed was doing the bare minimum having already had a good run in Stuttgart. Let’s not forget 2017 started with a defeat to a semi retired Tommy Haas!

Of course, nothing is guaranteed but an easy Fed title looks by far the most likely option currently.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by Emancipator on Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:19 pm

Slippy wrote:
barrystar wrote:
Emancipator wrote:
Slippy wrote:The field looks fairly weak to me. Fed to win easily - dropping no more than 2 sets.

Really? The field is much stronger than clay and looks far more unpredictable than last year

I agree - Fed has looked more vulnerable on all surfaces this year than the same time last year, Nadal has looked just as solid on clay but a bit more vulnerable off it, Cilic and Del Boy have put increased exposure on the highest stage behind them, and Kyrgios is hovering around, not to mention various youngsters being a year more experienced and tougher.

Also, conditions-wise, think what this week of broiling sun will do to the grass - it's not going to favour Fed.

Writing Federer off on grass is daft, but to me it feels way more open than 2017 did.
On clay, there was a reasonable question of whether Thiem and Zverev would step up their good results in the lead up events and put pressure on Rafa. I just don’t see that on grass. Both of those “youngsters” are unlikely to have any impact so we are left with the main challengers to Fed being:

1. Novak (still questionable whether his form and fitness is there and grass is, arguably, his weakest surface - notwithstanding he’s a three time Wimbledon champ!

2. Cilic - good form at Queens but has come up short often in slams and faded from a potentially winning position against Fed at the Australian. 

3. Kyrgios - probably the most natural of the youngsters on grass but still a head case. Very unlikely he will have the mental fortitude to win 7 matches on grass.

4. Raonic - very little form to speak of and too one-dimensional to trouble any of the big 4 on form. Serve also looks to have lost some pop.

I just can’t see any of those options troubling Fed significantly unless he is well short of his usual slam form. I’d read nothing into Halle as my impression was Fed was doing the bare minimum having already had a good run in Stuttgart. Let’s not forget 2017 started with a defeat to a semi retired Tommy Haas!

Of course, nothing is guaranteed but an easy Fed title looks by far the most likely option currently.

So you think the clay field and more precisely relative novices Thiem and Zverev had a better chance of beating Nadal at RG (where he's only lost twice) than the grass field, comprising three multiple W champions as well as numerous other dangerous opponents (Cilic, DP, Kyrgios), has of beating Federer at W (where he's been beaten many times)?

Ok...

Not to mention that grass by it's very nature is inherently more unpredictable than clay or even HC's. If you're going to declare this W as predictable and hand the trophy to Federer then you may as well hand the entire tour to him, sans clay of course.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by Slippy on Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:24 pm

I genuinely had to think who the three multiple champions were - it’s so long ago since Rafa won there. Let’s be serious - if any of those three win it will be a seismic shock. Nadal has done nothing on grass for several years. Djokovic hasn’t won any tournament at all for a year and Murray has won one match in over a year. The fact those are the first three players you mention as possible contenders speaks volumes about the real paucity of the field. 

The only other player you mention that I didn’t deal with above is DP. That was because I’m not even sure he will be fit enough to play and, even if he is, he’s another player who is far weaker on grass than hard courts. I can’t even remember if he played last year and the year before I think he lost to Pouille?  

As for the idea Wimbledon is somehow less predictable than the other slams, you do realise only 4 players have won it since 2003? Even the French has had 6 different champions in that time. 

The simple truth is that if Fed is fit he wins Wimbledon. I’ll acknowledge that, with hindsight, that was also the case with Nadal and the French (Thiem and Zverev aren’t ready yet). However, let’s not pretend this is a wide open tournament. Now the US Open on the other hand looks like it could be a real stunner!

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by summerblues on Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:29 am

Fed is the favorite, but agree with Eman that it is less obvious than Rafa at RG.  First, I think that challengers here are on average a little more numerous and a little stronger.  And second, I do not think Fed is in quite as good a shape for grass this year as Rafa was for clay.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by Emancipator on Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:10 pm

Yes, I don't think anyone would disagree that he is the clear favourite if fit. However, the implication that he is a bigger favourite this year at W than Rafa was at RG is OTT. 

'As for the idea Wimbledon is somehow less predictable than the other slams, you do realise only 4 players have won it since 2003? Even the French has had 6 different champions in that time.'


A perfect example of a misleading stat. Basic observation tells us that grass is more unpredictable than clay. You can end up in a crap shoot on grass and lose to a big server or someone playing very short aggressive points. Querrey - Djokovic, Nadal - Rosol, Federer - Stakhovsky being recent examples. Furthermore, Nadal has won 11 out of 14 RG's since 2005; Federer has won 8 out of 15 W's since 2003 - that is a more illustrative and  pertinent statistic, to the point in hand, than the one quoted above.  

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by barrystar on Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:09 pm

Emancipator wrote:Yes, I don't think anyone would disagree that he is the clear favourite if fit. However, the implication that he is a bigger favourite this year at W than Rafa was at RG is OTT. 

'As for the idea Wimbledon is somehow less predictable than the other slams, you do realise only 4 players have won it since 2003? Even the French has had 6 different champions in that time.'


A perfect example of a misleading stat. Basic observation tells us that grass is more unpredictable than clay. You can end up in a crap shoot on grass and lose to a big server or someone playing very short aggressive points. Querrey - Djokovic, Nadal - Rosol, Federer - Stakhovsky being recent examples. Furthermore, Nadal has won 11 out of 14 RG's since 2005; Federer has won 8 out of 15 W's since 2003 - that is a more illustrative and  pertinent statistic, to the point in hand, than the one quoted above.  

Absolutely agree with that - the epitome of crap shoots was the Wimbledon 1991 SF between Stich and Edberg which Stich won in 4 sets despite never taking Edberg to bp, facing several bp's himself, and having his serve broken once.

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

Post by naxroy on Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:31 pm

nadal had an exhibition match today against ebden, not that this matches say many things, but he won

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Re: Expectations for Wimbledon

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