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#1 ranking

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#1 ranking

Post by bogbrush on Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:09 pm

Getting not to the Dubai semi-final would do it.

Surely we’re about to see him resume the throne?

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by legendkillar on Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:10 pm

It's proper GOT time!

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by Tenez on Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:35 pm

I think its most likely chance is during the clay season if Nadal doesn't reproduce the same success as last year.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by bogbrush on Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:39 pm

Really? It’s actually statistically his to pick up just by making the semis at Dubai. Nadal couldn’t do anything about it and it’s not like Dubai is “out of his way” for his usual schedule.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by Slippy on Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:50 pm

He needs to win Dubai to guarantee it I think? Rafa could gain 200 points by winning Acapulco (compared to his final last year).

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by bogbrush on Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:55 pm

You’re right, I forgot he didn’t win it.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by gallery play on Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:10 pm

Tenez wrote:I think its most likely chance is during the clay season if Nadal doesn't reproduce the same success as last year.
Yeah, but the same can be said about Fed's Miami/Indian wells..

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by Jahu on Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:12 pm

Another Dubai wouldn't hurt, but also at least one of Miami/Indian to defend would be good.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by bogbrush on Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:21 pm

It’s very, very hard to see him defending the sunshine double but Dubai comes first and a win does it.

It’s a no-brainer.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by barrystar on Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:27 pm

Aye; he has one chance to be #1 for a week or two by winning Dubai. Anything else is mere speculation. Patrick Rafter is a former #1 having held it for one week. That will do, especially for a 36-yr old.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark on Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:36 pm

barrystar wrote:Aye; he has one chance to be #1 for a week or two by winning Dubai. Anything else is mere speculation. Patrick Rafter is a former #1 having held it for one week. That will do, especially for a 36-yr old.
Right.. And Moya had it for 2 weeks only...

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by noleisthebest on Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:47 pm

Wow, I didn’t realise that Fed can regain number one in Dubai.


Thank you, Donskoy! Big Grin

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by Slippy on Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:46 pm

You say that but, had it not been for Donskoy, Fed would now be number 1 Winking.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by bogbrush on Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:49 pm


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Re: #1 ranking

Post by summerblues on Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:23 pm

I was glad late last year that Fed was not trying to chase No 1 and risk injuries or burnout. Slams are what matters by far the most now. But I do think he should try hard to reclaim No 1 this spring, likely in Dubai. There is no slam on the horizon, he will probably rest through the clay court season, and if he does reach No 1, then he can drop IW or Miami too. So there is little downside to trying hard in Dubai.

I would almost be tempted to even squeeze Rotterdam in - he would just need to reach SF there and that would do it - though I am sure he will not enter it.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by gallery play on Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:45 pm

I try to imagine what Fed's priorities are. I can't see anything more than:
1. Wimbledon
2. Number 1 position

Everything else seems more or less meaningless at this stage. So the combo Rotterdam/Dubai seems legit. Still i don't think he will play Rotterdam. He's to proud to take short cuts, he'll challenge himself to win Dubai

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by summerblues on Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:06 pm

Now from a little different angle: we are mostly discussing how Fed could get to #1 assuming Rafa does well on clay.  But what if he does not?  What if he struggles kind of like he did in 2015?  Then Fed could have a good few months at #1, as nobody other than Rafa is even close.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by noleisthebest on Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:09 pm

Well, let’s not kid ourselves: Nadal has poor clay season only of Nole is playing or if Nadal is injured, and I can’t remember when that was the case last time.


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Re: #1 ranking

Post by bogbrush on Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:10 pm

I was thinking of Rotterdam too. It should be easy to get the 160 points needed

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by barrystar on Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:52 am

I’d be surprised if he goes to Rotterdam. It starts on 12.02 in two weeks time. Fed would not do it half-arsed. That would involve a very different schedule to gearing up for Dubai starting on 26.02 in 4 weeks, and from what worked for him last year.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by bogbrush on Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:05 am

Yeah, but he could dial in a few rounds, beat a few journeymen, to get the 160 points needed then do what he likes. It shouldn't be much harder than a training session.

This isn't about the years points total, it's about resuming the throne within a few months of 37 even if only for two weeks. It would be bigly, as someone says.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by noleisthebest on Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:16 am

Yes, but as GP mentiond, it just isn’t Fed’s “prim and proper” way.
He’d appear “desperate”...and desperate just doesn’t go with him and his efortlessness.

Murray would’ve done it for sure, though.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by Tenez on Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:34 am

The number 1 will come if he keeps playing like that. His main issue will be his body and Nadal's.

There doesn't seem anybody consistent enough to accumulate enough points to challenge him bar Nadal if that one stays healthy.


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Re: #1 ranking

Post by bogbrush on Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:44 am

I do fear that without a quick move either by winning Dubai (which surely he will enter as usual) or "cheating" it at Rotterdam that he will disappoint at IW / Miami against last year, then Nadal will do his usual thing on clay leaving Federer behind and defending another 2000 points at Wimbledon.

All this presupposes he doesn't play on clay, which I hope he resists. To be #1 whilst denying yourself about 7000 points of activity is crazy. By many peoples assessment he already is the #1 and I think slipping in Rotterdam doesn't even register against the massive handicap he gives himself by missing clay.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by Tenez on Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:28 am

I think IW format is quite good cause matches are quite well spread and even has a day rest between semi and final.....so there he has a decent chance of doing well.

Miami no. Much harder.....especially if he goes far at IW.

But above all though it woudl be nice to be #1 for a few weeks....what he really wants, if he skips clay, is to finish number one.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by barrystar on Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:30 am

Looking at the longer-term picture, if you want to see someone with 'balance' - from 0.45 is a more sober assessment of what GOAT is all about than you'll hear from any hyper-ventilating commentator https://ausopen.com/news-media/latest#g=video-71961-4299&s=slide-1

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by Tenez on Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:48 am

yeah...but he is the GOAT.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by gallery play on Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:44 pm

I was wondering why the top spot is such an obsession to Nadal. It's clear he's been doing the maths ever since regaining it.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by barrystar on Mon Jan 29, 2018 1:04 pm

gallery play wrote:I was wondering why the top spot is such an obsession to Nadal. It's clear he's been doing the maths ever since regaining it.

Going to Paris last season, yes, but not really otherwise.  After all, ever since then it's been in Fed's hands.  He'd be #1 if he had done what we all expected him to do and beaten Goffin at WTF, not to mention Dimitrov.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by summerblues on Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:55 am

Tenez wrote:I think IW format is quite good cause matches are quite well spread and even has a day rest between semi and final.....so there he has a decent chance of doing well.

Miami no. Much harder.....especially if he goes far at IW.

But above all though it woudl be nice to be #1 for a few weeks....what he really wants, if he skips clay, is to finish number one.
It is Miami that has SF on Friday, IW has Saturday SF.  But both tournaments are kind of ok - spread over two weeks with top seeds playing six matches and starting sometime around Saturday of the first week.

For me reaching #1 even if for a couple of weeks is almost more important than YE #1.  Obviously, YE #1 is better, but what would make his #1 spot special is how old he would be when getting there. And when people think of "the oldest No 1" they normally do not confine themselves to looking at YE.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by barrystar on Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:45 am

@sb - I agree.  Whenever you make #1 you are the best player over the last 12 months - that's an awesome achievement and it includes the full range of the tour, whilst I'd agree y/e #1 is more prestigious because you face specific pressure to be in form over the right period of 12 months, any time at #1 for Fed would do nicely.  Put it another way, the most important #1 record is total weeks at #1, not number of y/e #1.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by bogbrush on Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:56 pm

I'll actually be really pissed at Federer if he doesn't manage this; if he doesn't care then some of us do and I want to see it.

He's obviously not going to Rotterdam so he'd better win Dubai, because you can bet your bottom dollar that Nadal will die in Acapulco before dropping points.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by legendkillar on Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:14 pm

Well Nadal from here to the end of the Clay season has 5,670 points to defend. Whereas Federer has 2,045. 

For me Nadal needs a flawless Clay spell to keep himself ahead of the game going into grass where the pressure slightly reverses. 

I think he will snag it. Pressure is all on Nadal.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by barrystar on Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:58 pm

legendkillar wrote:Well Nadal from here to the end of the Clay season has 5,670 points to defend. Whereas Federer has 2,045. 

For me Nadal needs a flawless Clay spell to keep himself ahead of the game going into grass where the pressure slightly reverses. 

I think he will snag it. Pressure is all on Nadal.

Fed really has two cracks at it: (a) a v. short period if he wins Dubai (b) the prospect that before his chunky grass points drop off Nadal's failure to match his last year on the clay is greater than Fed's failure to match his IW/Miami double.

Frankly, I still think that winning Dubai gives Fed his best chance, if he wants to enter.  Whilst Nadal has 4,680 on clay to defend, it's pretty normal for him to pick up c.4,000 during that part of the season, and Fed could easily drop >1,000.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by legendkillar on Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:08 pm

barrystar wrote:
legendkillar wrote:Well Nadal from here to the end of the Clay season has 5,670 points to defend. Whereas Federer has 2,045. 

For me Nadal needs a flawless Clay spell to keep himself ahead of the game going into grass where the pressure slightly reverses. 

I think he will snag it. Pressure is all on Nadal.

Fed really has two cracks at it: (a) a v. short period if he wins Dubai (b) the prospect that before his chunky grass points drop off Nadal's failure to match his last year on the clay is greater than Fed's failure to match his IW/Miami double.

Frankly, I still think that winning Dubai gives Fed his best chance, if he wants to enter.  Whilst Nadal has 4,680 on clay to defend, it's pretty normal for him to pick up c.4,000 during that part of the season, and Fed could easily drop >1,000.

I think it's difficult to predict how Nadal will do on Clay this year given for example the dormant periods of 2015/2016 when out of the 6 Clay 1000 events he won only once. 

Federer defending his AO for me is a huge marker. If can retain Miami and IW, man the pressure ramps up on Nadal and I think he can only hope for a stinker of a Grass campaign from Federer.

I'll be intrigued to see if Federer plays Stutggart this year.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by barrystar on Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:21 pm

If Fed retains Miami and IW he's almost guaranteed, and retaining AO suggests his standard is pretty damn high, so there is that possibility. 

However, Nadal has scored 4,000+ on the clay much more consistently than Fed has managed an IW/Miami double.  We'll see....

I would be disappointed if Fed doesn't manage a short period during which he can lay claim to being the oldest ever #1 at some stage this year.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by legendkillar on Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:32 pm

It's how I see it with his standard. 

Does Nadal take a gamble though and not play until IW? I would be tempted to forgo the number 1 spot, have a crack at IW and Miami. Also what will Federer's fitness be like going into the American HC Swing? Toronto knackered him last year. 

Could see a nice bit of cat and mouse this year.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by bogbrush on Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:15 pm

I think he went into Toronto hurting, it was obvious from the first rally that he wasn’t right.

Nadal won’t wait until IW, he’s be there in Acapulco grinding like always. Unless there’s a longer term injury he’ll do his thing on the clay season too.

I can’t see any chance of another “sunshine double”.

It’s now, do it. Go to goddam Rotterdam, beat up a couple of journeymen and throw the semi if you want, but get the 160 points before Rafa steps on court again.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by barrystar on Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:07 pm

bogbrush wrote:I think he went into Toronto hurting, it was obvious from the first rally that he wasn’t right.

Nadal won’t wait until IW, he’s be there in Acapulco grinding like always. Unless there’s a longer term injury he’ll do his thing on the clay season too.

I can’t see any chance of another “sunshine double”.

It’s now, do it. Go to goddam Rotterdam, beat up a couple of journeymen and throw the semi if you want, but get the 160 points before Rafa steps on court again.

Toronto first match, or final?

Nadal will go to Acapulco for sure

No sunshine double, I agree.

No, don't go to Rotterdam.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by bogbrush on Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:12 pm

First match. He was terrible, for God’s sake he flirted with losing to Daveed. He’s his personal property! He was even poor in the first match despite the easy win.

Yes, Yes, No! Please Rog, just do this #1 thing!

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by Daniel on Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:51 pm

I'd be v surprised if he doesn't manage it.  Despite Narcissist Nadal's best efforts.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by summerblues on Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:09 am

barrystar wrote:
bogbrush wrote:...in Acapulco grinding like always....
Nadal will go to Acapulco for sure
I am not so sure he will play Acapulco.  Rafa will know that if Fed plays Dubai, it is out of his hands and likely that Fed overtakes him.  He might prefer pulling out of Acapulco, thus giving Fed #1 by default rather than see Fed winning it on court.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by barrystar on Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:50 am

@sb I’m prepared to believe that Nadal is a worse loser in reality than he lets us see, but that would be pretty petty. Do you really think he’d make scheduling decisions on that basis when there are so many other considerations such as his sponsors and dragging his team around and changes to his training and preparation to get match fit? I think it’s unlikely.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by legendkillar on Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:54 pm

Would be madness if he did. Let Nadal soak the Clay pressure up.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by barrystar on Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:12 pm

I'm close to 100% sure he won't play the clay.  It's understandable if he wants to let the clay tourneys down lightly and politely.  No doubt he'll emphasise that its a difficult decision, remind us what good times he has had at these lovely places,  that it's been made on the basis of how his body feels after AO &c &c.  He's not building up hopes, but he's not unnecessarily stepping on toes and dismissing them out of hand.  Nb. to bb that he's only mentioning Dubai and clay - Rotterdam isn't getting a look-in in his comments.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by legendkillar on Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:21 pm

Well a good showing in Dubai and #1 is surely his. I think that will influence the Rotterdam decision and will enable a straight flight to America and not stop off in Europe. 

Looking at NITB's link it said Nadal cited a hip injury??

hip hip horay?

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by barrystar on Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:41 pm

legendkillar wrote:Well a good showing in Dubai and #1 is surely his. I think that will influence the Rotterdam decision and will enable a straight flight to America and not stop off in Europe. 

Looking at NITB's link it said Nadal cited a hip injury??

hip hip horay?

Rotterdam is before Dubai and Dubai ends on 03.03.18.  Fed has an exhibition vs. Jack Sock in San Jose on 05.03.18.  Indian Wells officially starts that day, but Fed's first match will be in the 2nd round on 10.03 or 11.03.  There is plenty of time to play Dubai, including the final if he makes it, then fly to California for an exhibition before getting settled in for the serious stuff at the end of the week.  Flights are not affected by Rotterdam.

Nadal has strained a muscle at the front of his hip (ilipsoas?) apparently not a biggie and said to be little doubt of his fitness for Acapulco if he wants to play (not biting).

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by gallery play on Wed Jan 31, 2018 2:08 pm

Federer can only play on clay for 1 reason: to end the season as #1. But if that is his goal, it will he be his last goal too AND it will confirm he'll retire after this season. 

I'm sure the idea of retiring  as the top ranked player must be incredibly enchanting for him..

Skipping the clay would imo increase the possibilty of him to go on in 2019.

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Re: #1 ranking

Post by legendkillar on Wed Jan 31, 2018 2:17 pm

barrystar wrote:
legendkillar wrote:Well a good showing in Dubai and #1 is surely his. I think that will influence the Rotterdam decision and will enable a straight flight to America and not stop off in Europe. 

Looking at NITB's link it said Nadal cited a hip injury??

hip hip horay?

Rotterdam is before Dubai and Dubai ends on 03.03.18.  Fed has an exhibition vs. Jack Sock in San Jose on 05.03.18.  Indian Wells officially starts that day, but Fed's first match will be in the 2nd round on 10.03 or 11.03.  There is plenty of time to play Dubai, including the final if he makes it, then fly to California for an exhibition before getting settled in for the serious stuff at the end of the week.  Flights are not affected by Rotterdam.

Nadal has strained a muscle at the front of his hip (ilipsoas?) apparently not a biggie and said to be little doubt of his fitness for Acapulco if he wants to play (not biting).

Don't know why, but had it in my head Rotterdam was the latter. Stand corrected I do.

Front of his hip eh? Probably from all that short adjusting he does!

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Re: #1 ranking

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