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Federer vs Cilic Tactical Analysis & Preview

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Federer vs Cilic Tactical Analysis & Preview

Post by DECIMA on Sun Jul 16, 2017 1:45 am

Tenez if you want you can merge this with the final thread, don't mind.

Federer vs Cilic:

Weather: 24 degrees, cloudy, quite humid, no rain
Relatively tepid conditions won't favour either player too much; ball won't be as fast if it was closer to 30 degrees and sunny like earlier in the week; humidity will probably suit Federer.

Key Battle 1:
A key battle will be Cilic vs the Federer 2nd serve. Cilic is a much bigger returner of serve than both Berdych and Raonic; but at the same time Federer has one of the best 1st and 2nd serve on tour. Any second serves to Cilic's forehands have a danger of being pulverised, Cilic has long reach and a habit of stepping in and crunching the ball. Federer's serve will match up worse for Fed than Muller's serve, as left handed Muller had serves swinging into Cilic backhand. Body serves may be very effective as a change up, and jam Cilic- not allow him to swing.

Key Battle 2:
In rallies, Federer should aim to hit it deep to the Cilic backhand. The good news for Federer is the ball bounce has stayed quite low (in fact court condition is not completely consistent so sometimes ball has hit a patch and skidded), so the backhand slice will be better than if it was on hard court or clay. However ideally he is hitting through that backhand with a bit of pace, I see Cilic seriously struggling in pacy backhand to backhand cross court rallies. He was even doing poorly in backhand cross court rallies against Querrey, frequently overhitting under little pressure, which is not a good sign.

Form Guide:
Federer's flat backhand has shanked more than earlier on in the year, but the rest of his game has been good- served well as he normally does.
Cilic has served well too, but does sometimes have blips where he will lose focus and make basic errors. Cilic matches up badly with big servers, while against players with weak servers like Agut he will look better than he really is. Reason for this is against big servers he can't do as much with big returns, and his movement isn't great so doesn't do well in extended rallies or recovering form a defensive position in the rally. Against big servers match normally comes down to a few points, he can be a bit dodgy. Hence in this grass season; losing to Karlovic in Hert, losing to Lopez at Queens, struggling against a tired Muller and Querrey at Wimbledon. Doesn't bode well for this final.

Prediction:
I see Federer as pretty clear favourite. Federer if he does play well, wins in 3 sets for me. However if a combination of Cilic red-lining and Federer shanking happens- then I can see Cilic taking the match in 4 or 5 sets. On paper this is tougher than Berdych and Raonic. Cilic may get more affected by nerves than Federer, I saw him all tournament and he was roaring loudly when he was 6-2 6-2 4-2 and got a break against Agut- a sign of someone not mentally secure with their game.

My 'bias', who I will be supporting:
With Nadal out, I won't really be celebrating whoever wins tomorrow to be honest- but out of these two prefer Federer by quite a long way. Federer has a few flaws which I don't like, I think he's a bit smug, and his service games are too quick for my liking (I don't like pissing for 1 min and then finding out I've missed a whole game). I do like like watching Federer play, esp when he's having to work an opponent out in a rally. Meanwhile I detest Cilic's brand of tennis, big serving and hitting with very little point construction. So this won't be very difficult for me- I would prefer to see Federer winning than Cilic. He also came close in 2014 and 2015 so more deserved for him.

Sky Bet Odds:
Federer 1/5; Cilic 7/2

DECIMA

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Re: Federer vs Cilic Tactical Analysis & Preview

Post by bogbrush on Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:12 am

Good analysis. I struggle to rationally analyse because I'm too committed to the match. Obviously I fear an erratic Federer game, but that's a carry over from what we've had to endure for a number of years. 

So far in 2017 he's not lost a match that mattered and even the two he did lose he held match point. He's far more steady and unlikely to start shanking like mad. The mastery of the new racquet is the big factor.

I do fear a hyper-aggressive Cilic on 2nd serve returns. I am sure he noticed how well Berdych did rushing the net, and Berd isn't even good up there. Federer will have to do a lot of passing.

I can see reasons Cilic wins (mostly summarised above). I also see he lost on grass to Lopez at Queens - closely, but a loss - and progressed unimpressively in the quarters and semi against two completely knackered veterans. He's not really beaten anyone impressive at Wimbledon, if he were a top 4 guy we'd be moaning about a cupcake draw.

All that said their head to head shows no real beatdowns by Federer. This suggests Cilic matches up well probably because he'll net rush. Federer will need to shake his confidence and upset his game plan. Pummel the backhand and make him fear missing a 1st serve.

So the head says Federer, probably in 3 or 4. The heart will be beating too fast, this is a very important match in the career accomplishments of Federer. After losing two chances for #8 against peak Djokovic this would be a body blow. Hopefully it'll be a coronation of sole possession of the title of King of Wimbledon.


Last edited by bogbrush on Sun Jul 16, 2017 4:18 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Federer vs Cilic Tactical Analysis & Preview

Post by gallery play on Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:48 am

With all due respect Decima, but you're doing too much analysis.
It's on Fed's Racquet, if he hits the ball like he can, he'll win. No matter what the tempareature is, what Cilic does on Fed's second serve and no matter which side Fed aims.
This is no stuff for trainers, coaches or pundits. Fed is better and just needs play play his game to win. It's no rocket science.

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Re: Federer vs Cilic Tactical Analysis & Preview

Post by Tenez on Sun Jul 16, 2017 7:40 am

I second that GP. We will see very quickly how he feels....but even if he feels well one set it does not mean he ll feel well the other sets.

I dont believe nerves will be an issue here. Fed cause he is the coolest guy on earth and Cilic cause he eill olay as he has nothing to lose.....until he has (actually).

I ll try to see the match from a bar....not easy at one mile in altitude.

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Re: Federer vs Cilic Tactical Analysis & Preview

Post by Jahu on Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:08 am

This will be one of easiest matches of Fed this year.

Get your heads out of sand and do some reality check, its not Nadal or Djoko on the other side of the net, its Cilic for ffs, major choker.

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Re: Federer vs Cilic Tactical Analysis & Preview

Post by Emancipator on Sun Jul 16, 2017 1:28 pm

Of course  Big Grin

More intellectual (dis)honesty  Winking

I would root for Nadal's opponent everytime - even if it's Karlovic. At least until there's no chance whatsoever of him catching Fed.

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