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Assessing chances

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Assessing chances

Post by Daniel on Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:26 am

Muller 500-1.  He's toast. That long match will have taken any hope he had.  If he beats Cilic by way of normal victory, I will support Nadal in his next match.  
Querry 200-1.  If any bookie out there wants to make some money, shove 200/1 odds for the suckers. Hell, you could make it 5000-1.  It ain't happening.
Mannarino 150-1. He's a dark horse... but let's be honest, it's not at all likely, is it?
Berdych 50-1.  He's never managed it before and it doesn't look likely now either. Getting through Djok and Fed... Nah.    Still, he can be a git to Federer...  but I don't think he'll even meet him.

Business end:

My favourite:  Federer. I think it's close, but Federer has gone favourite again for me.  The sad thing is he does have the worst draw - which was evident from the start.  His biggest stumbling block is probably Raonic, as it was last year.  2-1. 

2nd Favourite: Cilic.  Yeah, Murray may beat him being a good returner... but equally, from what I am seeing Cilic is gonna be the finalist.   3-1

3rd: Raonic. He's a handful and he's confident. The classic grass player profile. He can be deadly. 4-1 

3rd: Murray.  Murray may not be having a good year, but he has experience and the crowd.  If he gets to the final and it isn't Fed, then I'd make him favourite.  Personally, I believe Cilic will beat him. 4-1

4th: Djokovic.  Who knows.  Recent form suggests he won't get past Raonic or Federer.  But you never know.  5-1.  Mannarino has a slight chance of causing an upset.


Last edited by Daniel on Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:33 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by summerblues on Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:32 am

Well, I expect Federer to beat Raonic easily. Likely straight sets or at most an easy 4-setter (i.e., more like 6:4, 6:4, 3:6, 6:3 than 7:6, 6:7, 6:4, 7:5).

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Daniel on Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:34 am

I wish I was that optimistic, but I remember caution last year proving to be accurate.. and this year is same.  The issue with a Raonic is how do you win if he serves his best.  It's VERY tough then.  Fed is a better player this year. But imho it will be Fed's toughest match.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by bogbrush on Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:02 am

Daniel wrote:I wish I was that optimistic, but I remember caution last year proving to be accurate.. and this year is same.  The issue with a Raonic is how do you win if he serves his best.  It's VERY tough then.  Fed is a better player this year. But imho it will be Fed's toughest match.
Yeah, I was really hoping for Zverev.

Still let's hope Raonic gets exposed by a fit Federer and somehow that Berdbrain gets last Djokovic (remember 2010?).

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Tenez on Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:21 am

Djokovic is Federer's biggest hurdle from now.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by noleisthebest on Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:23 am

Tenez wrote:Djokovic is Federer's biggest hurdle from now.
He probably is, alongside Cilic.

I was very surprised that last night Nole's match wasn't shifted to CC.

That was pretty low from the organisers as they did that in the past (Monfils-Simon in 2015).


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Re: Assessing chances

Post by legendkillar on Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:26 pm

Well Murray's route just got easier. Difficult to see him not make the final. Querrey won't test him and Cilic, well I think it would be fair to say he hasn't been tested himself. Somewhat of a nice draw: Kohlschreiber, Mayer, Johnson, Agut and Muller. Depends if mentally he can hold it together when it counts.

Federer and Djokovic. Well Federer has been in cruise control thus far. If Djokovic can get through today relatively unscathed, the mug won't put up much resistance in the QF. Looking more likely a Djokovic/Federer SF.

Murray apart from his match with Foggy, has been consistent, though not inspiring.

I will plump for a Federer and Murray final with Fed coming out on top.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Tenez on Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:37 pm

I think Berds could cause Berds some trouble. He has been playing well. Problem with Birds is his mental weakness and a 1/4F will weight heavily on his shoulders.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by legendkillar on Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:40 pm

Berds does cause Berds problems Winking

He was impressive against Thiem, but as you say the weight of the occasion similarly with Cilic will shackle them with weight of expectation.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Tenez on Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:53 pm

I'd be very surprise in Cilic were to lose to Murray here though.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by legendkillar on Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:12 pm

You would?

I wouldn't. I always think back to the US Open 2012 when Cilic had him dead to rights and fluffed it. It was an area Goran tried addressing and not sure he had much success, despite him winning the USO 2014.

It seems doubt creeps in with him. Can be hitting the fluff off the ball finding all corners of the court and next minute still hitting the fluff off the ball, but landing it in the stands.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Tenez on Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:17 pm

yes but there will be a huge difference of level between what Murray has been playing so far and Cilic. Cilic would really have to collapse mentally to lose but I think his shots will hurt so much that it will boost his confidence.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Daniel on Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:25 pm

It's all about match up with Cilic and Murray.  Murray's great asset is his return of serve that neutralizes Cilic a bit.  But we're talking about the Murray of this year - and he's been lackluster to say the least, while Cilic is flying (as Tenez says above).  I think Murray is gonna get battered. Poor Muller may even receive a bagel.  Yikes

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by bogbrush on Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:34 pm

I lean to Murray over Cilic. He can mess him up badly and the crowd will be 100%, I don't know how Cilic stands up to that sort of thing.

Over the the 'tough' half, hard to call. I'm always pessimistic with Federer so concerned about Raonic. In particular he's got a better groundstroke game than a few years ago and can hang in, added of course to the serve.

Berdbrain has a chance. He's looking strong and we're not be afraid of Djokovic having beaten him here in the 2010 semis. 

Probably Fed v Djokovic, but Raonic v Berdych wouldn't shock me to the core.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Emancipator on Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:30 pm

Raonic is rubbish.

Federer will handle him in str8 sets most likely with one going to a TB. Even a one-legged Federer should have beaten him last year.

I'm expecting a Fed vs Djokovic semi and for me that's the crunch match for Federer. We know if Screech finds his mojo he will make it tough. So far he continues to look frail despite not dropping a set so hopefully Fed will make short work of him.

I give Cilic or Murray (most likely) very little chance in a potential final against Federer. They'll both be wanting anyone but Federer I'd imagine to come through that side of the draw.

A couple of caveats: Fed doesn't get injured or is exhausted by a long five setter.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by bogbrush on Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:39 pm

I'm in awe of your confidence, E-man. Could you lend me some?

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Tenez on Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:03 pm

I agree that I'd be surprised to see federer lose from now on. before I thought Djoko woudl have a very good chance...but what I saw today was not very impressive. My only concern as mentioned is that Djoko will play like he as nothing to lose v Fed.

Should be interesting end to the tournament.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Emancipator on Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:19 pm

Tenez wrote:I agree that I'd be surprised to see federer lose from now on. before I thought Djoko woudl have a very good chance...but what I saw today was not very impressive. My only concern as mentioned is that Djoko will play like he as nothing to lose v Fed.

Should be interesting end to the tournament.

Yes.. and this time he really has nothing to lose. He'd have done well to reach the semi anyway, any pressure will be self inflicted. If the match is close I'd expect Federer to be better on the big points with Djokovic's demons getting the better of him. Hopefully it won't be close.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by gallery play on Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:02 pm

There always a lot of prestige on the line when Djoko plays against Federer. Djoko absolutely hates losing to Federer, so surely has something to lose. He'll get rid of the pressure once he's smiling at aces by Federer from a second serves. But then it's too late for him.
Federer will be under pressure anyway but from a psychological point of view it's a slight advantage it's "just" the semi.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by noleisthebest on Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:18 pm

Emancipator wrote:
Tenez wrote:I agree that I'd be surprised to see federer lose from now on. before I thought Djoko woudl have a very good chance...but what I saw today was not very impressive. My only concern as mentioned is that Djoko will play like he as nothing to lose v Fed.

Should be interesting end to the tournament.

Yes.. and this time he really has nothing to lose. He'd have done well to reach the semi anyway, any pressure will be self inflicted. If the match is close I'd expect Federer to be better on the big points with Djokovic's demons getting the better of him. Hopefully it won't be close.

What demons?

Another stupid phrase from media...

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by summerblues on Wed Jul 12, 2017 1:54 am

I am scared to admit it, but I do not see anyone from the remaining field having anywhere near 50/50 chance vs Fed.

Djokovic is the only one that could be a solid threat but even then:

I think a top form Fed beats even the very best Djokovic has ever had to offer, and relatively easily at that.  And I think Fed, while maybe not at his absolutely best, is not that far from it.  Djokovic, on the other hand, is yet to convince me he is close to his best.


None of the other guys should stand a very strong chance.  Perhaps if Cilic hits once-in-many-years purple patch, he could beat Fed, but how likely is that?

It is now mostly about how close to his best Fed will be able to play.  If he plays well, he should win.  Of course, he is almost 36, so things can perhaps more easily go wrong - healthwise or he can find himself running out of energy sooner than expected.

It is a sport, anything can happen, maybe I will be shocked tomorrow when Rao beats him in three easy sets, but I really think Fed should win from here.  I will be quite disappointed if he does not.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by bogbrush on Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:00 am

I can't quite get to this level of confidence. I will chew my nails as normal.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Daniel on Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:20 am

Raonic can easily win, sadly.  Because that serve of his is great - and statistically the best in clutch moments (source, ATP http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/infosys-milos-raonic-july-2016). If you can't break someone, you go to a tie break... again Rao is at least as good as Federer in tiebreaks.  Both are the best at them.  So then it becomes at best 50/50.  If Rao holds his serve - which he can - then sets can disappear.  That's why Federer has to play his best and hope he also gets the big points when they come. We've seen Rao beat him here before.  It's certainly not a shock if he does it again.  Cilic also took Fed to 5 didn't he? And blew him off court at the US Open... he's another who isn't a walk over.  Fed has a good chance - but it certainly is not great.

I can't let my heart rule my head - Fed can definitely be beaten this year.  I'll believe it when I see it.  Same as Aussie Open... although, I didn't actually believe that when I did see it.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by summerblues on Wed Jul 12, 2017 3:09 am

bogbrush wrote:I can't quite get to this level of confidence. I will chew my nails as normal.
Once they are playing, I am sure I will too. smiley

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by summerblues on Wed Jul 12, 2017 3:11 am

Daniel wrote:I'll believe it when I see it.  Same as Aussie Open... although, I didn't actually believe that when I did see it.
LOL.  Tell me about it.  I have seen the last few games of that match quite a few times.  And even now I half expect Rafa to break at 15-40 in that last game. smiley

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by bogbrush on Wed Jul 12, 2017 4:01 am

summerblues wrote:
Daniel wrote:I'll believe it when I see it.  Same as Aussie Open... although, I didn't actually believe that when I did see it.
LOL.  Tell me about it.  I have seen the last few games of that match quite a few times.  And even now I half expect Rafa to break at 15-40 in that last game. smiley
I thank God I was on a plane returning to England when that match was being played. My son sent the text result that he'd won and I got home to watch the recording.

There's no way I could have sat through that.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Daniel on Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:04 pm

Looks like major reassessment is in order.  My mate is a big gutted - and so am I.  Both didnt have guts to go for a querrey berdych double.  The signs pointed to them struggling - esp Djok who had already complained about his condition.

But still... both of them out.  Wow.  Fed has made his difficult draw look simple - and that's no easy feat.  I think if you'd have given Federer this SF and Cilic/Querrey final, he's have bitten your hand off.  I'd have taken this at the start 100 times over.

Berdych is not a push over and must be respected.  Federer will do.  He'll be aware of how dangerous his opponent can be if he finds a rhythm.  But, on paper at least, Cilic looks to be the remaining road block.  What Muller and Querrey have done is already crazy enough.  And maybe Querrey can take out Cilic?  Querrey Federer final?  Dare we dream?  Yikes

Federer. Favourite: 1-2.  It's really as good as he could have hoped for at this stage after the awful draw he was given. And he SHOULD now claim number 8.  Cilic could spoil the party... but it's Fed's to lose.

Cilic. 4-1.  I was unimpressed with his match v Muller (who I think would have won had he not been knackered), and Querrey could beat him.  Still, Cilic can get on a roll with his serve and I still think he'll be the finalist. 

Querrey 10-1.  He could potentially beat Cilic... but it would be a big ask to beat Federer.

Berdych 12-1.  Beating Federer and the finalist I think is a bridge too far.


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Re: Assessing chances

Post by bogbrush on Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:34 pm

I will need therapy if Federer loses this. I was pretty disappointed when he lost to Cilic at the USO when Nishikori was waiting in the final but this would top that, and then some.

Hopefully the Court is zippy for Berdych. Time must be taken away from that big wind-up forehand. I'd then really like Sam to beat Cilic, I feel you know what you'll get from Querrey and it likely won't be enough, but with Cilic you're never quite sure.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Daniel on Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:37 pm

Yeah that US Open was definitely going to be N18 until Cilic stuck a spoke in the wheel!

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by summerblues on Thu Jul 13, 2017 1:35 am

This is now Cilic's to lose.

Querrey is a good player but a couple of rungs below Cilic.

Berdych is not what he used to be, plus with him you always wonder if he quite has it what it takes to get through the final hurdle.

While Federer used to be a great grass court player, nobody expects him to win a slam less than a month shy of his 36th birthday.  Both he and his fans will be happy with a SF appearance here.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Daniel on Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:02 am

I hope you're joking and jinxing haha.  You have to be.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by bogbrush on Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:03 am

There jinxing and then there's this.

If you read the "Quarters" thread sb has been more honest.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by summerblues on Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:05 am

Daniel wrote:I hope you're joking and jinxing haha.  You have to be.
I am not serious if that is what you mean Winking

But is it not amazing?  The guy is really one month shy of his 36th b-day, yet we all want and (scarily) fully expect a slam win come Sunday.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Daniel on Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:14 am

It's not natural or normal or usual - and it's only partly believable.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by gallery play on Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:43 am

I wouldn't underestimate Querrey. It 50/50 to me.
Fed should beat Berd, in three. Forget Miami, AUS is a better indicator.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Tenez on Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:23 am

I agree that Cilic Querrey should be close. Their 4/0 H2H in Cilic favour is made of very very close matches. However in the final it would much better for Fed to play Querrey than Cilic.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by legendkillar on Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:46 am

Have to feel this is more than a chance. Has the feeling of FO 2009 where there is now a weight of expectation on his shoulders.

Experience will be paramount in this situation. Can imagine that Querrey/Berdych will be a bag of nerves. The pressure for them and Cillic to hold it together will be massive.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by bogbrush on Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:21 pm

Please don't say that, the semi final that year was unendurable.

I seriously need two straight sets processions for Federer.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Tenez on Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:31 pm

Would be lovely to have Federer win another slam without losing a set. I don't think it will happen though.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Jahu on Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:00 pm

W, Cinci, USO, (Shanghai?), Basel and WTF for Fed, I would be a happy puppy for 2017 smiley

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by legendkillar on Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:01 pm

bogbrush wrote:Please don't say that, the semi final that year was unendurable.

I seriously need two straight sets processions for Federer.


Well it was Clay and Delpo was coming into a red hot spell at that time.

I think the real benefit of his draw is that the players left show often or not show real signs of nerves and doubts in crunch moments.

I expect Fed to take it in his stride.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Jahu on Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:03 pm

Berdy is gonna fold AO style, not worried for him, Cilic will be put to rest by Sam too.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by legendkillar on Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:04 pm

The mug will fold for sure.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by bogbrush on Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:10 pm

I've not really watched any Berdych / Cilic. Looking at results I'd say;

Berdych:

Chardy  in 4. Meh
Harrison in 4. Meh again.
Ferrer in 3. Ok, but doesn't everyone?
Them in 5. Good win, but close
Djokovic retired. Interesting no breaks in set 1 despite Djokovic serving very slowly.

Cilic:

Kholi in 3. Good
Mayer in 3. Good again
Johnson in 3. Ok
Bautista-Agut in 3. Good, but he's weaponless.
Muller in 5. Not good, the 34 year old was coming off a 7-setter against Nadal


So overall Berdych hasn't done anything too thrilling. Hopefully this augurs well.

Cilic has done what he needed, and well, until the Muller match. Maybe Mullers s&v was confusing to him. He looks the biggest threat for sure.

Like I say, anyone got much first hand evidence?

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Jahu on Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:12 pm

I know Fed will give it 101% to crush Cilic for that useless USO loss. 

Done in 3 sets quickly, to show him who'se daddy.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by legendkillar on Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:17 pm

Well Berdych's result against Thiem was impressive.

I can't see that they've come against an out and out shotmaker. Mayer is pretty handy on grass and Kholy is a mug on par with Berdych.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by summerblues on Fri Jul 14, 2017 1:53 am

I did not see Berdych vs Thiem, but I do not understand why people call it an impressive result (not only you lk, I have seen others say the same thing).  Thiem is a clay courter who I would not expect to do well on grass.  To me, the fact that he took Berdych to five sets suggests that Berdych's form (at least in that one match) was not all that impressive.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Tenez on Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:03 am

I agree with SB. Thiem is Muster. And conds being slow in that first week helped him a lot.

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by legendkillar on Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:56 am

summerblues wrote:I did not see Berdych vs Thiem, but I do not understand why people call it an impressive result (not only you lk, I have seen others say the same thing).  Thiem is a clay courter who I would not expect to do well on grass.  To me, the fact that he took Berdych to five sets suggests that Berdych's form (at least in that one match) was not all that impressive.


However, I wouldn't call Berdych a grass courter. I call it an impressive result given the directions of their form, Thiem upwards and Berdych downwards. The match was a see-saw event and I was impressed Berdych closed it out.

More than willing to give him his due as he isn't fawned over as much as other players Winking

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Re: Assessing chances

Post by Emancipator on Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:12 am

Agree with SB. Thiem has a game that shouldn't translate well to grass. Huge cuts, long wind up, 20 feet behind the baseline. Berd made a meal of that match.

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Re: Assessing chances

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