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Post by Emancipator Mon May 01, 2017 5:07 pm

So, midway through the clay court season and it seems like a few trends are emerging.

Rafa appears to be back . Not just with the results, but also the performances, by all accounts, are very reminiscent of the old Rafa. He is growing in confidence, playing the big points better and not leaking as many UEs as he has been the last couple of years. The caveat to this of course is that he hasn't played any other members of the 'big 5' during this clay run. In particular, he hasn't played Djokovic - who to me still remains his biggest obstacle for RG. Rafa hasn't managed a set off Djokovic in something like the last 7 matches, 3 of those on clay.

The race for the fourth seeding could be important. As it stands Federer is still slightly ahead of Nadal (by 400 points) but could lose the slot if Rafa exceeds his performances from last year at Rome (semi-final) and Madrid (semi-final). It looks very doable now for Nadal to clinch the fourth seed at RG. This is potentially very important in that the 5th seed will be drawn to play a quarter against one of the top four and then potentially have to beat two more of the top four to win the title. That would be a really tough task for an old guy like Roger.

Novak is still out of sorts. He needs to get his act together sharpish. Wawrinka as ever remains an unknown quantity but seems to be thrive when he comes in under the radar. Overall he has shown some consistency this year prior to the clay.

Federer will enter RG with no clay court warm ups. The biggest question for me will be his fitness i.e endurance over five sets on clay, and the effect of clay on his knee. Will it hold up? Even if he feels slightly uncomfortable I suspect he'll just go through the motions and bide his time until W.

Murray could reach the final - I can't see him winning it if Djokovic or Nadal are on the other side of the net - or he could lose in the first round.

Outside of these usual suspects the pickings are slim. Thiem and Zverev as possible dark horses? Probably not - I doubt if either get beyond the quarters. Kyrgios? doesn't look to have a game that one would expect to flourish on clay. Tsonga can maybe cause an upset or an Isner type might serve bot one of the favourites out of the tournament. But this is clay and clay unlike grass and the faster HCs does not tend to produce too many shockers.

On the female side (I feel exhausted now) - no Serena, no Azarenka, and hopefully no Sharapova (or actually it would be fun if she got a WC and then lost in the first rd). There's some girl called Konta who I know nothing about except that she's prone to years when people swear at her, and a bunch of other nobodies that I couldn't care less about. Let's just hope someone really pretty wins beating someone only slightly less pretty in the final. Winking

So please feel free to use this thread as a place to discuss all things related to RG.


Last edited by TMF on Mon May 01, 2017 5:10 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by noleisthebest Mon May 01, 2017 5:09 pm

I just wrote a post on Barcelona thread, so deleting it there and c&p-ing it here:


Well, real clay tournaments start in Madrid next week.

It looks like Murray is out of the equation, paying the price for all those matches he had to play in order to get to number one.

Every time I saw Nadal, he looked beatable...but he always looked like that.

Somehow, I don't think he looks forward to 5 setters any more.

Nole looks fine, "just" lacks winning confidence and lots of matches.

I think Fed has a very good chance to win RG.

Again, draws will be important as Nadal again has them easy. Has he beaten anyone ranked above him this year?

How many top ten?

So...it's not all as simple as it looks.

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Post by Emancipator Mon May 01, 2017 5:12 pm

Yes, NITB, exactly the kind of ruminations I was hoping for.

When Rafa looks beatable but keeps winning - I think it's a dangerous sign for the rest of the tour. It means he's getting lots of balls back in awkward positions and then taking control of the rallies.

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Post by Veejay Mon May 01, 2017 5:59 pm

could be that roger is playing RG partially to try and secure ranking in the tope 4 for wimbledon
he has no points to defend at RG
id say going by what we have seen so far from the clay season,that nadal has to be the clear favourite for the title at RG

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Post by legendkillar Tue May 02, 2017 1:09 pm

Interesting, no mention of the clay specialists who could well trip up some of the big guns. Vinolas-Ramos, Agut, Busta and even Cuevas. Granted there names won't be on the trophy, but they could certainly be a mare for the big gungs. Murray and Wawrinka falling foul of 2 of them.

Murray's struggles continue. Clearly suffering with a niggling injury and I think it's a matter of time before he submits the No.1 ranking. Hard to know how he will fare at RG. I'd expect him to get through the earlier rounds. Depends on the draw.

Djokovic. A complete mystery. It's the manner of his wobbles in matches that concern me. I am still not convinced the rest of the field are over his dominance mentally purely because of the intensity of his wobbles. It's not the odd shot he's missing, it's lots of them and missing quite terribly. If the penny drops, he could tear through the field. Again like Murray I think he should get through the earlier rounds and if the draw isn't kind, I think could go at the QF stage.

Federer. Well his intentions are clear. Wimbledon is what he desires. Has had a flying start to the year and is playing solid sublime stuff. I expect him to make the SF's at least. Simply on form alone. No battle scars from the Clay and given the rejuvenated Nadal we've seen on Clay, might be a blessing to avoid him until the big event. If he comes up against lung busters, might sap him physically.

Nadal. Well if MC and Barcelona to go by, he is looking menacing on the Clay again. Certainly playing more aggressively. Has benefitted from not playing any of the big players, but given their struggles they might've gone by the wayside too. Like Federer I think they've been fortunate to avoid Nadal on form. Think I could be right in thinking that this year has seen the least match ups for the "big 4" since they made up the top 4 in rankings in 2009?

Wawrinka. I've given up trying to piece together any pattern that represents his form. A dialled in Wawrinka can blow the field away, but hell when's the last time anyone has seen anything like that from him??

The rest. Nishikori/Raonic/Dimitrov. No chance.

Goffin/Thiem/Zverev/Kyrgios. Only ones from the chasing pack playing with any form and health. I don't know what more incentive they need. Hampered Murray and Djokovic. The mugs above out of form and health. Now or never for them.

Dark Horses? Well I don't think they even progress beyond My Little Pony phase!

Form suggests a 10th title for Nadal and I am inclined to go with that.

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Post by Tenez Tue May 02, 2017 3:07 pm

Frankly no idea about what's going to happen in RG. Most likely a win from Nadal, then I'd say Federer. Stan and Djoko in 3rd. Murray, not sure but I don;t think he is top 5 this year to win the FO. He struggled too much on clay so far. 

Maybe Delpo can hurt this year. He is my dark horse.

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Post by noleisthebest Tue May 02, 2017 4:38 pm

I have two dark horses!

Pouille & Kyrguos.

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Post by Emancipator Tue May 02, 2017 6:50 pm

legendkillar wrote:Interesting, no mention of the clay specialists who could well trip up some of the big guns. Vinolas-Ramos, Agut, Busta and even Cuevas. Granted there names won't be on the trophy, but they could certainly be a mare for the big gungs. Murray and Wawrinka falling foul of 2 of them.

Murray's struggles continue. Clearly suffering with a niggling injury and I think it's a matter of time before he submits the No.1 ranking. Hard to know how he will fare at RG. I'd expect him to get through the earlier rounds. Depends on the draw.

Djokovic. A complete mystery. It's the manner of his wobbles in matches that concern me. I am still not convinced the rest of the field are over his dominance mentally purely because of the intensity of his wobbles. It's not the odd shot he's missing, it's lots of them and missing quite terribly. If the penny drops, he could tear through the field. Again like Murray I think he should get through the earlier rounds and if the draw isn't kind, I think could go at the QF stage.

Federer. Well his intentions are clear. Wimbledon is what he desires. Has had a flying start to the year and is playing solid sublime stuff. I expect him to make the SF's at least. Simply on form alone. No battle scars from the Clay and given the rejuvenated Nadal we've seen on Clay, might be a blessing to avoid him until the big event. If he comes up against lung busters, might sap him physically.

Nadal. Well if MC and Barcelona to go by, he is looking menacing on the Clay again. Certainly playing more aggressively. Has benefitted from not playing any of the big players, but given their struggles they might've gone by the wayside too. Like Federer I think they've been fortunate to avoid Nadal on form. Think I could be right in thinking that this year has seen the least match ups for the "big 4" since they made up the top 4 in rankings in 2009?

Wawrinka. I've given up trying to piece together any pattern that represents his form. A dialled in Wawrinka can blow the field away, but hell when's the last time anyone has seen anything like that from him??

The rest. Nishikori/Raonic/Dimitrov. No chance.

Goffin/Thiem/Zverev/Kyrgios. Only ones from the chasing pack playing with any form and health. I don't know what more incentive they need. Hampered Murray and Djokovic. The mugs above out of form and health. Now or never for them.

Dark Horses? Well I don't think they even progress beyond My Little Pony phase!

Form suggests a 10th title for Nadal and I am inclined to go with that.

Great post.

I've highlighted a couple of extra noteworthy points.

With Djokovic it does feel like he needs to dial in and once he does you'd expect him to be right there at the business end of any tournament. Yet, it's now been almost a year and he still hasn't managed to get his act together. Ok, in that time he did reach some major finals and win a masters but he didn't look convincing doing so, apart from maybe at the start of the year when he beat Murray. At some point we'll need to start asking the question; when is it just a blip and when is it actually symptomatic of a permanent decline? We've seen it before with other great players who had precipitous declines in their fortunes after periods of dominant form.

WRT Wawrinka I feel that, despite his consistency on the HC's this year, he has declined. His standout performances are few and far between and the last of those was probably at the FO in 2015. Of course given such erratic form it's not inconceivable that he produce another standout performance and snag another slam. The odds are against it I think.

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Post by Tenez Tue May 02, 2017 11:07 pm

... wrote:I have two dark horses!

Pouille & Kyrguos.

Very dark!

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Post by noleisthebest Tue May 02, 2017 11:36 pm

Tenez wrote:
... wrote:I have two dark horses!

Pouille & Kyrguos.

Very dark!

Btw, who coined that phrase...dark horse?

I mean has any dark horse ever won anything?

It's actually just a meaningless journalistic cliche.

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Post by noleisthebest Tue May 02, 2017 11:45 pm

I just read that Ferrer is on a 5 match losing streak.

We all remember how he was the gatekeeper and almost an eternal number 5.

Weaponless, lots of running...35. Same as Murray and Nole. (Nadal is still squeezing through with many lucky draws this year, his game is dead, too,)

It is not a coincidence.

Ferrer's game is totally passe.

I don't even know why he is bothering any more.


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Post by noleisthebest Tue May 02, 2017 11:57 pm

Tenez wrote:
... wrote:I have two dark horses!

Pouille & Kyrguos.

Very dark!
On second thoughts: ha, ha!

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Post by Jahu Wed May 03, 2017 8:58 pm

nit, you been pushing this Poullie for last 6 months, he ain't doing shit, ever.

Korgi in clay, lets see.

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Post by Tenez Wed May 03, 2017 11:33 pm

... wrote:I just read that Ferrer is on a 5 match losing streak.

We all remember how he was the gatekeeper and almost an eternal number 5.

Weaponless, lots of running...35. Same as Murray and Nole. (Nadal is still squeezing through with many lucky draws this year, his game is dead, too,)

It is not a coincidence.

Ferrer's game is totally passe.

I don't even know why he is bothering any more.


Interesting. We might think it is no coincidence to have Murray, Djoko and Ferrer all doing badly at the same time.....but I am sure it is.
Ferrer is 35 so he is probably starting to feel it...like Federer but unlike Federer he cannot win with short points. He might also be injured a bit cause I can;t see why he would not win a match or 2 suddenly. We know Djoko and Murray are not 100% physically and I am sure they will find form again.....but unlike Federer, their game will be found out by the new generation soon so they do not have much time on their side.

Whereas Nadal is clearly finding form again.....probably knowing the others aren't gives him wings.

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Post by Tenez Wed May 03, 2017 11:35 pm

Jahu wrote:nit, you been pushing this Poullie for last 6 months, he ain't doing shit, ever.

Korgi in clay, lets see.
He just won a tournament last week.

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Post by noleisthebest Thu May 04, 2017 11:53 am

Tenez wrote:
... wrote:I just read that Ferrer is on a 5 match losing streak.
We all remember how he was the gatekeeper and almost an eternal number 5.
Weaponless, lots of running...35. Same as Murray and Nole. (Nadal is still squeezing through with many lucky draws this year, his game is dead, too,)
It is not a coincidence.
Ferrer's game is totally passe.
I don't even know why he is bothering any more.
Interesting. We might think it is no coincidence to have Murray, Djoko and Ferrer all doing badly at the same time.....but I am sure it is.
Ferrer is 35 so he is probably starting to feel it...like Federer but unlike Federer he cannot win with short points. He might also be injured a bit cause I can;t see why he would not win a match or 2 suddenly. We know Djoko and Murray are not 100% physically and I am sure they will find form again.....but unlike Federer, their game will be found out by the new generation soon so they do not have much time on their side.

Whereas Nadal is clearly finding form again.....probably knowing the others aren't gives him wings.

Murray is def injured, but with Nole, watching him play in Monte Carlo I thought the main problem was rustiness and confidence.
His tennis looked best of the three. (himself, Nadal and Murray).

It will be very difficult for him to claw his way back to winning this year, esp as he keeps being handed tough draws.
We'll see.


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Post by Tenez Thu May 04, 2017 3:37 pm

On a different subject....ATP makes an article on a ridiculous, insignifiant stat!:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/nadal-infosys-may-2017-serving

Top 10 2017 vs. 2016: Percentage of Winning The Opening Point On Serve

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Post by gallery play Mon May 15, 2017 7:39 pm

Breaking news: Federer skips RG:

http://www.rogerfederer.com/index.php/news/61-roger-to-skip-roland-garros-will-focus-on-the-grass-hardcourt-season

And with this his remark at the AO echoes through my mind:
"I played Rafa too often on clay early on in my career".

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Post by Emancipator Mon May 15, 2017 7:42 pm

Yep, just seen this.

Well, well.

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Post by Emancipator Mon May 15, 2017 7:45 pm

Good decision I guess. Never felt the logic of playing RG without any prep was wise. Clearly he's not interested in chasing number one either.

Overall, it certainly improves his chances at W.

If he's fit, he's gonna be so hard to beat if his grass game is dialled in and particularly with Novak AWOL this year.

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Post by Emancipator Mon May 15, 2017 7:52 pm

I wonder if the knee didn't feel right on the clay.

He says he hopes to be back at RG next year.

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Post by Veejay Mon May 15, 2017 8:21 pm

well that is really very disappointing to hear as i was so much looking forward to seeing him back in action 
if he isnt injured or struggling with some nagging ache or pain then i think its a huge missed opportunity

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Post by AceofDeath Mon May 15, 2017 8:51 pm

Why would he bother playing when he knows it's fixed for Lance Armstrong to win again?

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Post by Jahu Mon May 15, 2017 8:59 pm

Honestly never cared for RG after he won it once, and as said here, whats the logic of no clay tournament at all and then show up in RG like tourist? Guess you experts here did not see it coming that Fed wont play RG  Big Grin

He can have 2 grass ones then W, good enough.

I just went and bough a double priced Barilla Pasta bag, just to help Fed get his % of sales since he is Barilla Global guy now  Laugh

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Post by Emancipator Mon May 15, 2017 9:01 pm

I suspected as much when he said he hadn't decided. Sounded like he was hedging his bets against playing.

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Post by Veejay Mon May 15, 2017 9:17 pm

gallery play wrote:Breaking news: Federer skips RG:

http://www.rogerfederer.com/index.php/news/61-roger-to-skip-roland-garros-will-focus-on-the-grass-hardcourt-season

And with this his remark at the AO echoes through my mind:
"I played Rafa too often on clay early on in my career".
i wondering if that psychological aspect played part in his decision i.e a loss to nadal at RG could have  a serious mental impact on him if thy were to meet at wimbledon

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Post by Daniel Mon May 15, 2017 9:40 pm

AceofDeath wrote:Why would he bother playing when he knows it's fixed for Lance Armstrong to win again?

Any evidence of this?  Magic


Honestly never cared for RG after he won it once, and as said here, whats the logic of no clay tournament at all and then show up in RG like tourist? Guess you experts here did not see it coming that Fed wont play RG  Big Grin 

I think a few of us did.  Only Tenez, ..., "Bogbrush" and some other crazies thought Fed would enter and then have a chance of winning.  Laugh

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Post by Daniel Mon May 15, 2017 9:46 pm

Maybe Del Potro can capitalize on the shambles tennis is in at the moment.  He certain;y has the ability and perhaps it's time for him to go far in a tournament.  Get a few points now.  Thumbs Up

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Post by Tenez Mon May 15, 2017 11:34 pm

Very disappointed. If anything this tells me he is injured or something.

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Post by summerblues Tue May 16, 2017 2:02 am

Mhmm.  too bad, I was quite interested in seeing how Fed would do at RG this year.  But cannot say I blame him.  Winning a slam on clay would probably be too unlikely anyway.

It was somewhat odd when he said a couple of weeks ago that he would play at RG, but he was practicing on hard courts rather than clay.

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Post by noleisthebest Tue May 16, 2017 6:24 am

Tenez wrote:Very disappointed. If anything this tells me he is injured or something.
I understand the decision.
I don't think he is injured.

To me, he was going to play and win the thing.
Maybe watching the level of Nadal's  retrieving in Rome, Fed simply didn't want to squeeze life out of his body and find himself spent in the heart of the season.

I just read an interesting interview from Karlovic's coach, who says how much his body hurts every morning, but also adds he'll keep playing while he is able to stand.
( http://sport.blic.rs/tenis/blicsport-u-rimu-trener-iva-karlovica-novak-nas-je-navikao-na-nenormalno/9cxx3lj )

Of course I am disappointed, too.
But also excited as he is working so hard on giving us those masterpieces.

And probably no one is disappoited about not playing RG more than himself.

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Post by Tenez Tue May 16, 2017 6:31 am

But then why playing Stuttgart, Halle ? That is more likely going to tire him. Does not make sense to me.

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Post by noleisthebest Tue May 16, 2017 6:38 am

Probably just to warm up for grass, it's short rallies, so more preparation and fine tuning for Wimbledon than exhaustion.

One 5 setter under the scorching Parisian sky is probably worth both Halle and Stuttgart physicality wise.

And maybe he knows stg we don't. I read somewhere he ordered a few cans of RG Babolat balls to practise with last week.


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Post by Tenez Tue May 16, 2017 6:51 am

No. A match at that age is killing whether on grass or not. He might not be injured but I doubt he recovered so well from that sunshine swing. He was wrong to play both and now him pulling out of RG supports my point. If he is that good and can turn up and win the AO then he surely could have tried RG and certainly could do with only one grass prep.

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Post by noleisthebest Tue May 16, 2017 7:32 am

Maybe at the back of his mind he blames last year's clay season for reinjuring the knee in Wimbledon, who knows...

I just don't understand why he strongly alluded he would play RG a few weeks ago and then said he won't.

(Though, I am sure he knew it all the time he wouldn't, it slipped his tongue even in AO)

It can only be an injury (doubt + hope not) or those Babooat balls are heavier than he liked.

Maybe even stg third, but it's nit coming to me yet! tongueout

All I know is this clay season has been (Na)dullest in a very long time!

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Post by bogbrush Tue May 16, 2017 8:03 am

He's not injured, he's just dumping a tournament he has littie chance at, and some risk in, in favour of one he might and means more to him.

It means I think Nadal will be back to #1 sometime later this year.

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Post by Tenez Tue May 16, 2017 9:36 am

Still it's stupid to play 2 prep grass tournament.

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Post by legendkillar Tue May 16, 2017 10:14 am

Was expected TBH. Why skip the Clay warm up events and show up at RG and even experience a more physically brutal tournament?

Wise planning. If there was ever an emphatic statement as to what Slam holds the most prestige, this is it right here.

Certainly incorporating the freedom thinking in his play to his planning.

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Post by noleisthebest Tue May 16, 2017 12:35 pm

Tenez wrote:Still it's stupid to play 2 prep grass tournament.

You're right...One would've been more than enough.

So why did he choose Stuttgart:

a) He loves playing on grass
b) He loves money
c)  Stuttart TD made him an offer he couldn't  refuse
d) somehing else?

If he wins Wimbledon it will all have been worth it, if he doesn't  journalists will start their usual if and should've stories...

I think Fed's earnt the right to gamble this year. After winning AO it's all house money.
Controlled instinct.

Anyway...I am glad he is playing at all.

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Post by Veejay Tue May 16, 2017 1:57 pm

Tenez wrote:Still it's stupid to play 2 prep grass tournament.
not neccessarily,he needs to get some matches under his belt after such a long break from tour and be match fit going into wimbledon
i think that his decision could be from a mental point of view,a loss to nadal at RG could swing the momentum back in nadals favour

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Post by bogbrush Tue May 16, 2017 7:00 pm

I prefer to focus on the immense positive that is his intention to stay playing for "many more years".

What a thought: 40 year old Federer giving guys half his age a lesson.

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Post by Emancipator Tue May 16, 2017 7:13 pm

Veejay wrote:
Tenez wrote:Still it's stupid to play 2 prep grass tournament.
not neccessarily,he needs to get some matches under his belt after such a long break from tour and be match fit going into wimbledon
i think that his decision could be from a mental point of view,a loss to nadal at RG could swing the momentum back in nadals favour

Hardly. Sounds about ideal prep for W given, as Veejay has noted, he'll have been off the tour for nearly three months.

A 250, 500 and then W spread over 5-6 weeks is hardly taxing. All on grass of course.

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Post by Tenez Tue May 16, 2017 11:25 pm

Very wrong I am afraid. It's not the 10 weeks break that matters it's the yesterday match. Playing 4 days in a row is actually more taxing than a slam where they have a day in between.
I wish him all the luck but if he reaches finals of Stuttgart and Halle I give him no chance to win Wimbledon.

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Post by summerblues Wed May 17, 2017 2:34 am

Tenez wrote:but if he reaches finals of  Stuttgart and Halle I give him no chance to win Wimbledon.  
Oh my goodness.  You, Born Slippy, HMMurdock.  All adults but jinxing like teenagers.  At least Amri is a kid.

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Post by summerblues Wed May 17, 2017 2:43 am

The way I see it:

If Fed had played anything more than just RG on clay, he would have run too much of a risk of running out of gas for Wimbledon.  I think he would have been OK to play just RG on clay, but I can see how that would have been suboptimal to effectively try RG with no practice on clay.

So what he is doing now is reasonable.  Stuttgart + Halle + Wimbledon should be ok, and if he ever feels like he is overplaying, he can still choose to skip Halle (or to take it easy and allow himself to lose early).

Fingers crossed that he wins at least one of W/USO (I am getting greedy with the start of the year he has had).

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Post by garthmarenghi Wed May 17, 2017 12:45 pm

If Federer plays like he did at the Aussie Open, the rest can forget Stuttgart, Halle and Wimbledon.  

And I have a feeling he's playing both Stuttgart and Halle because he doesn't want to turn around and feel he didn't warm up appropriately on grass. If he does show up a bit wobbly for Stuttgart he will have time to fine tune anything at Halle in preparation for the big one.

Fed for the win at SW19 to go onto 19!

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Post by Jahu Wed May 17, 2017 8:03 pm

So the WC for RG has been refused to that drugged russnian girl, good!!!

Nice reason too, WC's are for back from injuries, not back from doping.

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Post by Daniel Wed May 17, 2017 9:05 pm

Actually Del Potro and Stan might have a good run in the FO.  Everyone has ruled them out by default, but Stan esp can always turn it on in slams.

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Post by Tenez Wed May 17, 2017 9:51 pm

summerblues wrote:
Tenez wrote:but if he reaches finals of  Stuttgart and Halle I give him no chance to win Wimbledon.  
Oh my goodness.  You, Born Slippy, HMMurdock.  All adults but jinxing like teenagers.  At least Amri is a kid.
I am not jinxing. He will not win Wimbeldon if he plays 9 matches on grass before.

he was lucky at the AO that he got 2 days rest before the final. He was also lucky to have a day rest in Miami to have a day in between semi and final as well as lucky to have saved MPs v Berdych and Kyrgios. 

So great start to the year certainly (and about time he deserved a bit of luck) BUT his success so far is more fragile to me than it looks.

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Post by noleisthebest Wed May 17, 2017 11:29 pm

garthmarenghi wrote:If Federer plays like he did at the Aussie Open, the rest can forget Stuttgart, Halle and Wimbledon.  

And I have a feeling he's playing both Stuttgart and Halle because he doesn't want to turn around and feel he didn't warm up appropriately on grass. If he does show up a bit wobbly for Stuttgart he will have time to fine tune anything at Halle in preparation for the big one.

Fed for the win at SW19 to go onto 19!
Indeed GM! Bubbly

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