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Federer sacrificing #1?

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Daniel on Thu Apr 06, 2017 8:49 pm

Sorry.  Can't see it, TMF.   Big Grin

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Emancipator on Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:02 pm

It would be amazing though if Federer got to number one.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by luvsports! on Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:07 pm

Anywho, in answer to the OP - i want this feds around for years and for that he needs rest!

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Daniel on Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:12 pm

luvsports! wrote:Anywho, in answer to the OP - i want this feds around for years and for that he needs rest!

Yeah, back on topic smiley

Federer, sadly, will probably still enter a clay tournament other than the FO (I really want him to win one of the Masters he hasn't - but I think clay is a waste of his time and energy). I hope he has more sense. Still, at 35 his time is coming to an end.  I always thought this would be his last year, but now I am not so sure. I guess it all depends on how he feels. He loves tennis. If he gets a bad injury again, though, I think that will be it. The issue for Federer is maintaining this form. I don't see that happening. It's a bit unfortunate that Wimbledon wasn't the first slam of the year :P

By the time it comes around, I expect this momentum to be gone. I've put 10 on Kyrgios to win Wimbledon. 14-1.  Federer has already gone past expectations. I didn't think he'd win another slam after last year. This year has been a bonus.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Daniel on Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:59 pm

Tenez wrote:

But be honest. You would have given him more chance to win Wimbledon than to win AO, IW and Miami in succession! So in fact Wimbledon is very possible considering what he has achieved so far.

I missed this post.
That's true, but it still doesn't change the unlikelihood of it. We'll have to wait and see.  Devil

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by johnyjeep on Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:49 pm

Fantastic thread! Read through quite a few and content really good. Not sure why it's taken me so long to stumble on this forum!! Much better than 606. Which is a shame for a couple of the mods there who were quite excellent.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by bogbrush on Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:07 pm

TMF wrote:It's great being foed. Now I can write whatever I like about Daniel.
I did anyway. He's way too entertaining to ignore.

Makes a lot of rambling speeches where he states the last word on things...... then does them again and again.

He uses some pretty pictures though.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Tenez on Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:39 pm

Daniel wrote:
Tenez wrote:

But be honest. You would have given him more chance to win Wimbledon than to win AO, IW and Miami in succession! So in fact Wimbledon is very possible considering what he has achieved so far.

I missed this post.
That's true, but it still doesn't change the unlikelihood of it. We'll have to wait and see.  Devil
Of course teh odds are against it....but they are also against everybody else. We just know that teh chance of winning the lottery are slim though every week or month one lucky soul wins it. So in tennis no one has a 50% chance or more of winning Wimby now yes someone will win it. Fed's chance are probably as good as anyone, give or take.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Tenez on Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:42 pm

johnyjeep wrote:Fantastic thread! Read through quite a few and content really good. Not sure why it's taken me so long to stumble on this forum!! Much better than 606. Which is a shame for a couple of the mods there who were quite excellent.

Welcome here JohnyJeep. It's pretty cool here. It's a small club but some key knowledgeable posters....or funny characters ...you'll find out who is what by yourself. Winking

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Emancipator on Fri Apr 07, 2017 12:58 pm

Welcome JohnyJeep.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by legendkillar on Fri Apr 07, 2017 1:08 pm

BB. I sense an HE undertone to some of your posts. Especially in reference to the fabled asterisk Winking

In response to your OP. I'd say that when you go from monopolising the Slams and No.1 for a sustained period like he did and have that dry up entering into his 30's makes the days in the sun more enjoyable I reckon. I think at this stage of his career and owning the records around the No.1 ranking, I think that winning Slams would be more satisfying than chasing the No.1 ranking. As sweet as 18 must've tasted for him, 19 or even 20 would be more sweeter. I think winning a Slam seeded 17th which is the lowest since Kuerten FO 2003 (It's a guess and I am not googling), must enhance the mindset for him that whichever seed he is in a Slam is not a barrier to the success of winning it. Hence why I don't anticipate a Murray-esq flogging of his body to achieve a ranking he has held for so long previously. No matter how tantalising the consideration is.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by bogbrush on Sat Apr 08, 2017 2:17 pm

Fear not, just testing the water Winking

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by summerblues on Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:29 pm

Here are top 10 point getters when I remove last year's clay points (i.e., the table has points from after RG through now).

(current ATP ranking in parentheses)

1(1) Andy 8800 pts
2(4) Roger 5035
3(3) Stan 4535
4(2) Nole 4305
5(6) Raonic 3760
6(8) Cilic 3225
7(7) Nishi 3110
8(10) Tsonga 2725
9(12) Dimi 2700
10(5) Rafa 2605

Andy still very safe at #1.  Remarkable how poor Nole has been after RG.  Almost half his current ranking points come from clay from last year.  If his poor form continues on clay, he will soon see himself fighting for #3, #4 or even #5 spot.

For Rafa likewise, almost half his ranking points are from clay.  So he will also need to do well or he will drop from #5.  The expectation with Rafa seems to be that he is reinvigorated and will do well.  I am not totally sold on that.  We will see soon enough.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Daniel on Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:46 pm

Federer would need a miracle to regain n1 (unless you are a fanboy Big Grin ).  It's wimbledon and the US we all want to see him win.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by ... on Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:29 am

summerblues wrote:Here are top 10 point getters when I remove last year's clay points (i.e., the table has points from after RG through now).

(current ATP ranking in parentheses)

1(1) Andy 8800 pts
2(4) Roger 5035
3(3) Stan 4535
4(2) Nole 4305
5(6) Raonic 3760
6(8) Cilic 3225
7(7) Nishi 3110
8(10) Tsonga 2725
9(12) Dimi 2700
10(5) Rafa 2605

Andy still very safe at #1.  Remarkable how poor Nole has been after RG.  Almost half his current ranking points come from clay from last year.  If his poor form continues on clay, he will soon see himself fighting for #3, #4 or even #5 spot.

For Rafa likewise, almost half his ranking points are from clay.  So he will also need to do well or he will drop from #5.  The expectation with Rafa seems to be that he is reinvigorated and will do well.  I am not totally sold on that.  We will see soon enough.

To me the biggest surprise is how many points Murray amalgamated after RG last year and all that WITHOUT WINNING A SLAM.

I don't see him killing himself this year like that.

So we have an open year.

As things are, after the unexpected revival of Fedal rivalry, we may be in for the Nole-Nadal one on clay.

Interesting times.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark on Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:49 am

... wrote:
summerblues wrote:Here are top 10 point getters when I remove last year's clay points (i.e., the table has points from after RG through now).

(current ATP ranking in parentheses)

1(1) Andy 8800 pts
2(4) Roger 5035
3(3) Stan 4535
4(2) Nole 4305
5(6) Raonic 3760
6(8) Cilic 3225
7(7) Nishi 3110
8(10) Tsonga 2725
9(12) Dimi 2700
10(5) Rafa 2605

Andy still very safe at #1.  Remarkable how poor Nole has been after RG.  Almost half his current ranking points come from clay from last year.  If his poor form continues on clay, he will soon see himself fighting for #3, #4 or even #5 spot.

For Rafa likewise, almost half his ranking points are from clay.  So he will also need to do well or he will drop from #5.  The expectation with Rafa seems to be that he is reinvigorated and will do well.  I am not totally sold on that.  We will see soon enough.

To me the biggest surprise is how many points Murray  amalgamated after RG last year and all that WITHOUT WINNING A SLAM.

I don't see him killing himself this year like that.

So we have an open year.

As things are, after the unexpected revival of Fedal rivalry, we may be in for the Nole-Nadal one on clay.

Interesting times.

He won the GS Wimbledon after RG, isn't it?

He had a poor Usopen, but after that he won almost everything he entered. About 4000 points after Usopen.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by legendkillar on Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:06 pm

bogbrush wrote:Fear not, just testing the water Winking


My only concern is you'll enjoy it too much Winking

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by legendkillar on Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:11 pm

... wrote:
summerblues wrote:Here are top 10 point getters when I remove last year's clay points (i.e., the table has points from after RG through now).

(current ATP ranking in parentheses)

1(1) Andy 8800 pts
2(4) Roger 5035
3(3) Stan 4535
4(2) Nole 4305
5(6) Raonic 3760
6(8) Cilic 3225
7(7) Nishi 3110
8(10) Tsonga 2725
9(12) Dimi 2700
10(5) Rafa 2605

Andy still very safe at #1.  Remarkable how poor Nole has been after RG.  Almost half his current ranking points come from clay from last year.  If his poor form continues on clay, he will soon see himself fighting for #3, #4 or even #5 spot.

For Rafa likewise, almost half his ranking points are from clay.  So he will also need to do well or he will drop from #5.  The expectation with Rafa seems to be that he is reinvigorated and will do well.  I am not totally sold on that.  We will see soon enough.

To me the biggest surprise is how many points Murray  amalgamated after RG last year and all that WITHOUT WINNING A SLAM.

I don't see him killing himself this year like that.

So we have an open year.

As things are, after the unexpected revival of Fedal rivalry, we may be in for the Nole-Nadal one on clay.

Interesting times.

You could well see the state of flux return to that of the period of 2002-2003 with the potential for transitional number 1's should the poor form of Djokovic and Murray continue. I don't expect to see the dominance of 3 Slam a year winning player. Fed not playing Clay certainly makes it open season. I'd find it quite interesting that Murray/Djokovic/Wawrinka/Nishikori and Raonic all struggle during the Clay. Only because it might give the up and coming brigade a whiff of self belief.

Hard to gauge exactly how the Clay season will pan out.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Emancipator on Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:43 pm

legendkillar wrote:
... wrote:
summerblues wrote:Here are top 10 point getters when I remove last year's clay points (i.e., the table has points from after RG through now).

(current ATP ranking in parentheses)

1(1) Andy 8800 pts
2(4) Roger 5035
3(3) Stan 4535
4(2) Nole 4305
5(6) Raonic 3760
6(8) Cilic 3225
7(7) Nishi 3110
8(10) Tsonga 2725
9(12) Dimi 2700
10(5) Rafa 2605

Andy still very safe at #1.  Remarkable how poor Nole has been after RG.  Almost half his current ranking points come from clay from last year.  If his poor form continues on clay, he will soon see himself fighting for #3, #4 or even #5 spot.

For Rafa likewise, almost half his ranking points are from clay.  So he will also need to do well or he will drop from #5.  The expectation with Rafa seems to be that he is reinvigorated and will do well.  I am not totally sold on that.  We will see soon enough.

To me the biggest surprise is how many points Murray  amalgamated after RG last year and all that WITHOUT WINNING A SLAM.

I don't see him killing himself this year like that.

So we have an open year.

As things are, after the unexpected revival of Fedal rivalry, we may be in for the Nole-Nadal one on clay.

Interesting times.

You could well see the state of flux return to that of the period of 2002-2003 with the potential for transitional number 1's should the poor form of Djokovic and Murray continue. I don't expect to see the dominance of 3 Slam a year winning player. Fed not playing Clay certainly makes it open season. I'd find it quite interesting that Murray/Djokovic/Wawrinka/Nishikori and Raonic all struggle during the Clay. Only because it might give the up and coming brigade a whiff of self belief.

Hard to gauge exactly how the Clay season will pan out.


Murray is a transitional number 1. The top spot may changing hands frequently may become more of a regular thing. There is no one playing at the moment that looks to have the potential to be a dominant number one ala Federer or Djokovic.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by ... on Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:27 pm

The worst thing about Murray as a new number one is how bad his 2017 has been.

It's as if he spent all his energy playing million matches to get to number one last year...mind you, I am not complaining.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by ... on Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:30 pm

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:

He won the GS Wimbledon after RG, isn't it?

He had a poor Usopen, but after that he won almost everything he entered. About 4000 points after Usopen.

I forgot about Wimbledon...

Still, amazing he ended up number one with ine slam only. Still can't get my head around how he managed to it.

A lot went behind the scenes.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by luvsports! on Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:26 pm

It's happened many times before though. SOme got to no1 without winning a slam remember.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by ... on Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:20 pm

Anyway...Fed beat Murray in an exo in Zurich tonight, and here is some pre-match chit-chat about number one ranking:


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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by ... on Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:27 pm

& the 2nd set tb:


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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by legendkillar on Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:21 pm

TMF wrote:
legendkillar wrote:
... wrote:
summerblues wrote:Here are top 10 point getters when I remove last year's clay points (i.e., the table has points from after RG through now).

(current ATP ranking in parentheses)

1(1) Andy 8800 pts
2(4) Roger 5035
3(3) Stan 4535
4(2) Nole 4305
5(6) Raonic 3760
6(8) Cilic 3225
7(7) Nishi 3110
8(10) Tsonga 2725
9(12) Dimi 2700
10(5) Rafa 2605

Andy still very safe at #1.  Remarkable how poor Nole has been after RG.  Almost half his current ranking points come from clay from last year.  If his poor form continues on clay, he will soon see himself fighting for #3, #4 or even #5 spot.

For Rafa likewise, almost half his ranking points are from clay.  So he will also need to do well or he will drop from #5.  The expectation with Rafa seems to be that he is reinvigorated and will do well.  I am not totally sold on that.  We will see soon enough.

To me the biggest surprise is how many points Murray  amalgamated after RG last year and all that WITHOUT WINNING A SLAM.

I don't see him killing himself this year like that.

So we have an open year.

As things are, after the unexpected revival of Fedal rivalry, we may be in for the Nole-Nadal one on clay.

Interesting times.

You could well see the state of flux return to that of the period of 2002-2003 with the potential for transitional number 1's should the poor form of Djokovic and Murray continue. I don't expect to see the dominance of 3 Slam a year winning player. Fed not playing Clay certainly makes it open season. I'd find it quite interesting that Murray/Djokovic/Wawrinka/Nishikori and Raonic all struggle during the Clay. Only because it might give the up and coming brigade a whiff of self belief.

Hard to gauge exactly how the Clay season will pan out.


Murray is a transitional number 1. The top spot may changing hands frequently may become more of a regular thing. There is no one playing at the moment that looks to have the potential to be a dominant number one ala Federer or Djokovic.

As much as I want to agree with that sentiment. I will exert a spin of the caution Henry Jones did with Indy in the Last Crusade "When Murray is not number 1 and nowhere near that ranking, then I will share that sentiment"

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Daniel on Tue Apr 11, 2017 4:39 pm

It's just more of the same wishful thinking. Whatever some people want to be true is true... even when the facts say otherwise.  Murray is going to be WN1 for a while it would seem.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Tenez on Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:54 pm

Daniel wrote:It's just more of the same wishful thinking. Whatever some people want to be true is true... even when the facts say otherwise.  Murray is going to be WN1 for a while it would seem.

It's nearly irrelevant. The one who has been winning everything lately including beating Murray in their last 5 encounters is Federer. It's been a very long time since we had such an unconvincing world number 1.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by bogbrush on Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:23 am

Daniel wrote:Federer would need a miracle to regain n1 (unless you are a fanboy Big Grin ).  It's wimbledon and the US we all want to see him win.
It's quite rare for someone to make their argument and torpedo it themselves inside one line.

You do realise that by winning those two events he would virtually guarantee the #1 ranking?

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by luvsports! on Mon Apr 17, 2017 3:03 pm

Could be further sacrificing it if he doesn't play the French!
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/17/tennis/roger-federer-french-open/

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Emancipator on Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:40 pm

It does sound like he's hedging towards not playing the FO. Otherwise why would he air these doubts in public.

I wonder if it's the knee and how it reacts to sliding on clay.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by bogbrush on Mon Apr 17, 2017 6:54 pm

Thanks, very interesting.

I think he'll play only if he's certain it'll react well and if he feels like the slog. Watching them today made me feel more than before that he's doing the right thing.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Veejay on Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:22 pm

federer looking to return on tour in stuttgard 


http://www.myatp.com/share/eyJkb21haW5JZCI6IjEwIiwic2hhcmVUeXBlIjoibWVkaWEiLCJzaGFyZUlkIjoiMnV0RzhBNmRRUHkiLCJjbGllbnRUb2tlbiI6IjJRdnhMQjRBVXduUU5rSCJ9?v=1492459750511

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Daniel on Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:05 pm

luvsports! wrote:Could be further sacrificing it if he doesn't play the French!
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/17/tennis/roger-federer-french-open/


Tenez and Bogbrush seem to think these kinds of comments show that Federer can win it. In their eyes, Federer is now the best on clay too... even when he himself is running away from it.  Doh I await with eager anticipation for the latest yarn excuse.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Tenez on Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:00 am

To me it is a big mistake not to play seriously on clay. besides the fact I think he can do very well on it..it is going to add more pressure on his grass court results.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by summerblues on Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:33 am

Disagree.  Glad he is playing almost nothing (or nothing) on clay.  Clay is the surface where he is least likely to succeed and a full clay court season would have left him exhausted for grass and HCs.

I hope he wins Wimbledon though.  If he keeps his current form, I would make him #1 favorite.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by bogbrush on Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:53 am

Daniel wrote:
luvsports! wrote:Could be further sacrificing it if he doesn't play the French!
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/17/tennis/roger-federer-french-open/


Tenez and Bogbrush seem to think these kinds of comments show that Federer can win it. In their eyes, Federer is now the best on clay too... even when he himself is running away from it.  Doh I await with eager anticipation for the latest yarn excuse.
How do you await with interest when you put people on ignore?

Of course, we know that the truth is that you'd never put me on ignore, you hang on my every word ever since I owned you last time.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by bogbrush on Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:54 am

Tenez wrote:To me it is a big mistake not to play seriously on clay. besides the fact I think he can do very well on it..it is going to add more pressure on his grass court results.
I'm sure he could but he's obviously been advised the knee won't take it. On that assumption I'm more than happy. 

I don't think there's any extra pressure if he's ignoring the ranking. Returning after a lengthy break seems not to be too much of a problem for him!

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by legendkillar on Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:38 am

Clearly not concerned with the ranking, which epitomises how high confidence must be. Be interested to see what his seeding would be at the FO should he decide to play. My guess would be nothing outside the top 8 which would lend a more favourable place in the draw. Does well on the grass prior to Wimbledon and he could find himself inside the top 4 seeds.

Be very compelling. What a gamble though should he get a decent seeding at Wimbledon and win it.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Tenez on Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:32 am

bogbrush wrote:
Tenez wrote:To me it is a big mistake not to play seriously on clay. besides the fact I think he can do very well on it..it is going to add more pressure on his grass court results.
I'm sure he could but he's obviously been advised the knee won't take it. On that assumption I'm more than happy. 
He said he doesn't know whether clay makes it better or worse. He just doesn;t want to take the risk. The fact is his knee got injured at the AO (HC). Nothing to do with clay. I remember him saying in the past, after Miaami, that he was happy to get away from HC and going to clay and grass as those surface were much easier on teh body (sos said Nadal who has history of bad knees). I cannot see how clay can make it worse than HC. Doesn't make sense to me.

He is a smart guy but we all know know that he has also made very stupid mistakes....huge one in fact regarding the racquet as he most likely wsted 7 or 8 slam minimum by sticking to his antique weapon when the tennis world was evolving fast.

Regarding Miami I still think it was a mistake to play it in full. Frankly he saved MPs v Berdych and Kyrgios and could have lost there, injured himself and be as exhausted without a win while compromising his clay season as well (which it did eventually). So glad he won but he was extremely lucky to some respect as one point going wrong would have made this whole effort useless.

I don't think there's any extra pressure if he's ignoring the ranking. Returning after a lengthy break seems not to be too much of a problem for him!
The pressure is from within. He wants Wimbledon desperately like Lendl wanted it. Lendl also skipped teh FO to max his chances at SW18...and it did not work.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Tenez on Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:38 am

legendkillar wrote:Clearly not concerned with the ranking, which epitomises how high confidence must be. Be interested to see what his seeding would be at the FO should he decide to play. My guess would be nothing outside the top 8 which would lend a more favourable place in the draw. Does well on the grass prior to Wimbledon and he could find himself inside the top 4 seeds.

Be very compelling. What a gamble though should he get a decent seeding at Wimbledon and win it.

yes and the other benefit to play a bit on clay would have secured a higher ranking and easier draw at Wimbledon. Frankly...not convinced by recent decisions.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by bogbrush on Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:09 pm

Tenez wrote:
bogbrush wrote:
Tenez wrote:To me it is a big mistake not to play seriously on clay. besides the fact I think he can do very well on it..it is going to add more pressure on his grass court results.
I'm sure he could but he's obviously been advised the knee won't take it. On that assumption I'm more than happy. 
He said he doesn't know whether clay makes it better or worse. He just doesn;t want to take the risk. The fact is his knee got injured at the AO (HC). Nothing to do with clay. I remember him saying in the past, after Miaami, that he was happy to get away from HC and going to clay and grass as those surface were much easier on teh body (sos said Nadal who has history of bad knees). I cannot see how clay can make it worse than HC. Doesn't make sense to me.

He is a smart guy but we all know know that he has also made very stupid mistakes....huge one in fact regarding the racquet as he most likely wsted 7 or 8 slam minimum by sticking to his antique weapon when the tennis world was evolving fast.

Regarding Miami I still think it was a mistake to play it in full. Frankly he saved MPs v Berdych and Kyrgios and could have lost there, injured himself and be as exhausted without a win while compromising his clay season as well (which it did eventually). So glad he won but he was extremely lucky to some respect as one point going wrong would have made this whole effort useless.

I don't think there's any extra pressure if he's ignoring the ranking. Returning after a lengthy break seems not to be too much of a problem for him!
The pressure is from within. He wants Wimbledon desperately like Lendl wanted it. Lendl also skipped teh FO to max his chances at SW18...and it did not work.
Well the injury happened in Australia, running a bath for the kids - not to do with the event. The nature of injury might be (probably is) completely different from Nadal so I think we can only go on his reports of his medical advice.

That pressure you refer to is independent of clay success so this decision neither increases or decreases it.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by bogbrush on Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:12 pm

Tenez wrote:
legendkillar wrote:Clearly not concerned with the ranking, which epitomises how high confidence must be. Be interested to see what his seeding would be at the FO should he decide to play. My guess would be nothing outside the top 8 which would lend a more favourable place in the draw. Does well on the grass prior to Wimbledon and he could find himself inside the top 4 seeds.

Be very compelling. What a gamble though should he get a decent seeding at Wimbledon and win it.

yes and the other benefit to play a bit on clay would have secured a higher ranking and easier draw at Wimbledon. Frankly...not convinced by recent decisions.
Why won't he be in the top 4 anyway?

1. I doubt he'll be overhauled from 4th in the rankings as he got very few points to lose from now to Wimbledon. 
2. He made a semi last year, so the W weighting isn't unhelful.

To be he looks nailed on to be at worst #4 seed at Wimbledon anyway. Apart from Murray & Djokovic who is going to be ahead of him?

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by legendkillar on Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:17 pm

Tenez wrote:
legendkillar wrote:Clearly not concerned with the ranking, which epitomises how high confidence must be. Be interested to see what his seeding would be at the FO should he decide to play. My guess would be nothing outside the top 8 which would lend a more favourable place in the draw. Does well on the grass prior to Wimbledon and he could find himself inside the top 4 seeds.

Be very compelling. What a gamble though should he get a decent seeding at Wimbledon and win it.

yes and the other benefit to play a bit on clay would have secured a higher ranking and easier draw at Wimbledon. Frankly...not convinced by recent decisions.

I don't know. Something about him winning those 3 big events early on and then sitting back almost saying "hey guys that's my bit of work done for now. Over to you" puts pressure on the likes of Raonic/Nishikori/Stan to do well on the Clay to set their season up.

If he had lots of points to defend on Clay, I'd understand the concern. He has none to defend at RG. So even a small run there contributes to his haul. He's on 5,125. He drops 90 from Rome. If he plays RG and at minimum picks up 360, I reckon that plus a good run at Halle/Stuttgart places him nicely for Wimbledon. I think 5,500+ before Wimbledon would be enough to secure a top 4 seeding.

Let's see how this pans out. Could be a stroke of genius. Winking

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Slippy on Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:55 pm

Fed is more or less certain to be seeded top 4 at Wimbledon, given that his ranking for seeding purposes will be boosted by at least 720 points from last year and 900 points from the year before (75% of his points for making the final). It would require Nadal to win everything on clay to get past him.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Tenez on Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:04 pm

bogbrush wrote:Well the injury happened in Australia, running a bath for the kids - not to do with the event. The nature of injury might be (probably is) completely different from Nadal so I think we can only go on his reports of his medical advice.
Am I the only one who seriously questions that version? I think it's a nice way to say that his loss to Djokovic the day before had nothing to do with it. But frankly I would question that taking your kids to bath might hurt Federer's knees more than 4 sets versus Djoko. At best I think he felt a sharp pain then (in the bathroom with his kids) but the damage was made by years of playing tennis.....on HC. As we know that the injury was of wear and tear type.


That pressure you refer to is independent of clay success so this decision neither increases or decreases it
It's the pressure of putting all your eggs in one basket...no more no less. PLaying Stuggart and Halle....won't make him any fresher for Wimbledon.


Last edited by Tenez on Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:11 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Tenez on Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:10 pm

legendkillar wrote:I don't know. Something about him winning those 3 big events early on and then sitting back almost saying "hey guys that's my bit of work done for now. Over to you" puts pressure on the likes of Raonic/Nishikori/Stan to do well on the Clay to set their season up.
Glad he won the 3rd (Miami) but is it serious at his age to play IW and Miami? Was not a very wise decision, imo. Certainly not wiser then rest and play Rome or Madrid for instance.

If he had lots of points to defend on Clay, I'd understand the concern. He has none to defend at RG. So even a small run there contributes to his haul. He's on 5,125. He drops 90 from Rome. If he plays RG and at minimum picks up 360, I reckon that plus a good run at Halle/Stuttgart places him nicely for Wimbledon. I think 5,500+ before Wimbledon would be enough to secure a top 4 seeding.
Again defending points is meaningless. It's all about acquiring points...which can also be called "defending points" on some occasions.

Let's see how this pans out. Could be a stroke of genius. Winking
It's not. regardless whether he wins or loses WImbledon.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by legendkillar on Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:27 pm

I don't see why you feel underwhelmed by his decision not to play the clay swing, more so even if he does succeed at Wimbledon. Seems an odd position to take.

Essentially he has a free pass points wise to the end of the season.

He played what all of one Clay match last year I think and he still went on to the semi's of Wimbledon last year, so I don't see how playing Clay events this season would improve his chances there again this time round.

Not entirely sure what your issue is with his schedule.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Emancipator on Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:41 pm

I think he's doing absolutely the right thing by skipping most of clay. If he wanted to make a serious attempt at RG he could probably do that by playing himself into form over the first few rounds. I don't think he needs to kill himself playing clay tourneys and risk injury/fatigue at the same time as prep for RG. He certainly doesn't need Rome, MC or Madrid titles - they add very little to his legacy in the long run.

Sliding on clay may well be the issue particularly (as seems likely) if he has had a meniscal injury.

As for the fourth seed at W - I think he's almost virtually assured of that already.

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by Veejay on Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:47 pm

im with tenez on this,focusing purely on the grass season will put an enormous amount of pressure on him as he will be building all his hopes on that

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Re: Federer sacrificing #1?

Post by bogbrush on Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:14 pm

Pressure for what? He's clear,y not fussed about the ranking and he'll go to grass fresh and ready. The pressure is all off, gone: #18 saw to that.

And Slippy has the same view as me that the 4th seeding at W is more or less secure.

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