Fedal XXXVII - who you got?

Surely this deserves it's own thread.

Let's party like it's 2006. The clock has been rewound. The monotony of the endless BH to BH rallies of the Murray-Djokovic bore fests has ended, and not a moment too soon. I love tennis but in all honesty I've stopped watching those matches - rather just see the result.

Anyway, instead we have the third instalment of Fedal for this year.

Oz was a nail biter. IW was a blow out. Both were incredibly high quality matches for different reasons. What will Miami bring?

In favour of Federer:
On a roll. Confident. Nothing to lose. Has the opportunity to turn Nadal into his pigeon after being the pigeon for so many years.

Against: Sloooow conditions will make it difficult to hit through Nadal. Doesn't seem quite as sharp as he was in IW. Two long matches back to back and three weeks of continuous tennis - surely he will be tired?

In favour of Nadal:
Conditions more favourable to his style of play than IW (vis-à-vis Federer). Starting to look more and more like the old Rafa and winning the matches he should. Confidence improving. Very easy route to the final - should be fresh as a daisy.

Against: Still not firing on all cylinders and this is still the post 30, erratic Nadal - who knows which version will turn up. The pressure is on him.

Verdict: The smart money says Nadal. I don't gamble so not sure what the odds are. Federer needs to get off to a quick start and keep the points short (not easy on this court) even if that means conceding points with errors. He doesn't want Rafa to get into a baseline rhythm. Head says Rafa, heart says Federer - TMF in 2 sets.

TMF wrote:Surely this deserves it's own thread.

Let's party like it's 2006. The clock has been rewound. The monotony of the endless BH to BH rallies of the Murray-Djokovic bore fests has ended, and not a moment too soon. I love tennis but in all honesty I've stopped watching those matches - rather just see the result.

Anyway, instead we have the third instalment of Fedal for this year.

Oz was a nail biter. IW was a blow out. Both were incredibly high quality matches for different reasons. What will Miami bring?

In favour of Federer:
On a roll. Confident. Nothing to lose. Has the opportunity to turn Nadal into his pigeon after being the pigeon for so many years.

Against: Sloooow conditions will make it difficult to hit through Nadal. Doesn't seem quite as sharp as he was in IW. Two long matches back to back and three weeks of continuous tennis - surely he will be tired?

In favour of Nadal:
Conditions more favourable to his style of play than IW (vis-à-vis Federer). Starting to look more and more like the old Rafa and winning the matches he should. Confidence improving. Very easy route to the final - should be fresh as a daisy.

Against: Still not firing on all cylinders and this is still the post 30, erratic Nadal - who knows which version will turn up. The pressure is on him.

Verdict: The smart money says Nadal. I don't gamble so not sure what the odds are. Federer needs to get off to a quick start and keep the points short (not easy on this court) even if that means conceding points with errors. He doesn't want Rafa to get into a baseline rhythm. Head says Rafa, heart says Federer - TMF in 2 sets.

i give nadal the edge for these reasons

Hmm. I think it's all about how well Federer recovers and how well he can get onto Nadal serve, especially with the 'new' backhand.

But don't forget weather either. I could be really windy.

Probably just Nadal given the route to the final. Tight one though.

I am glad Fed has a day to recover...I've been trying to recover myself from lack of sleep all day   ...
my reflexes have nearly let me down on a bike half an hour ago

Poor Fed, can he club again one more time?

Of course he can!  

What time is the party?

Around 1pm local time = 6pm here.

TMF wrote:Around 1pm local time = 6pm here.

This tournament is really made for rafa. Slow, windy, heat making the bounce crazy and 1pm start, worst heat and meaning very little recovery time for fed. Feels like 2008 again, all the stars align for Nadal.

Tenez wrote:

TMF wrote:Around 1pm local time = 6pm here.

This tournament is really made for rafa. Slow, windy, heat making the bounce crazy and 1pm start, worst heat and meaning very little recovery time for fed. Feels like 2008 again, all the stars align for Nadal.

I agree the conditions in Miami are not to Federer's strength. In the daytime it will be hot and possibly windy. The heat will make the ball travel quicker but also the bounce higher. Federer is generally a very good wind player - I remember him str8 setting Rafa in IW in 2012 when it was v windy, however, his current game, which has finer margins than before, could be adversely affected by the wind.

What I will say is that if Federer did win this then it's clear everything has changed. I don't think a normal European clay match would be any tougher for him than this.

Agree, this Miami is probably 95% clay speed, I think only Paris Masters is worst, and I'm sure clay is easier on Fed legs than this crap, would not mind a MC title

If Fed takes first set, he has a good chance.

Maybe I am scar-free from Fedal matches, but I find if hard to imagine Fed losing to Nadal tomorrow.

He is playing so well this year, only he can stop himself.

Fed wins. He can and will play like there's no tomorrow. He'll take a long break after this.
For Rafa all the hard work has just started. He has yet a mountain to climb upcoming months and that could lessen his fierceness a bit tomorrow.

The one thing that counts for Federer today is that for all that he's made the final Nadal hasn't really played anyone. To have failed to get through that list would have been a real disaster. And the bagel from Kholi wasn't very impressive.

In fact other than Zverev and Dimi, and I regard those two as 2nd tier, Rafa hasn't actually beaten anyone yet this year. Hope he doesn't start today!

I am more concerned by the level I have seen him play v Fognini. He was moving extremely well and his shots were powerful and deep. That to me is enough to know that Federer will have some serious troubles tonight.

The only thing in Feds favour is that Nadal will be very nervous to win something big for a long time. Federer is simply stronger mentally. But with the zippy ball, heat and windy conds ...Nadal will take heart.

Yeah, I'm more convinced by the conditions, but even more by the tough last 2 weeks Federer has played, than Nadals form in the semi. 

Fognini did nothing to press Nadal at all. In that situation he can plant his feet and exert his spin. Federers skill in 2017 has been to make him play under pressure so he cannot get the bite on the ball. In those rallies where Federer didn't assault him Nadal was just as able as ever to hit the deep bouncing forehands. It was just that he spent most if his time being rushed, especially on those vicious backhand returns from both sides (recovery from the service action is a much underestimated weak moment for any player).

This, and the quality of Federers serve, will decide the result today.

Fed's heart will carry him to victory tonight.

gallery play wrote:Fed wins. He can and will play like there's no tomorrow. He'll take a long break after this.
For Rafa all the hard work has just started. He has yet a mountain to climb upcoming months and that could lessen his fierceness a bit tomorrow.

Every Fedal match is huge and this one is extra important. Federer knows this. A win today and he would have the decisive upper hand in the rivalry for the first time; a loss and the rivalry resets to the status quo.

Legacy wise Nadal is still the most likely candidate to challenge him on the overall count. He needs to step on Rafa and keep him down. If Rafa were to win Miami, beating Federer in the process, it would give him a huge confidence lift.

Things can change very quickly in tennis. Fed knows this. He won't be complacent. They'll both give it 100%

I think this match is not that important...important maybe only to Nadal & his fans who think this is a good chance for him to beat Fed who is tired, conditioons suit Nadal more etc...

But sorry, Fed is going to win today!

It's also the fight for the number 4 spot....quite important in fact for Fed's success in the upcoming matches as will be more likely to have easier draws.