Can Nadal Win Roland Garros 2017?

It looks like he is gaining confidence coming to clay season.

of course theres a possibility that he could,i just dont think that he is the hot favourite for the title
i dont think that anyone is right now as the chances are pretty even among the usual grand slam contenders

I think he is one of the top three favourites.
Ahead of Murray, equal with Stan.

Not sure what is going on with Nole. As things stand he won't defend his title there.

I say yes - most definitely

He is the favourite as of now.

He's getting his confidence back and his movement is getting sharper. We know historically when those two elements come together Rafa is UNBEATABLE - he can play match tennis at a level that know one else can.

Federistas better get scared - he's back.

Of course he can.  But here's the issue... he isn't 25 now.  He has dips and his body doesn't hold up the same.  He comes up against Wawrinka and it's likely he's going home.

He definitely isn't the favourite. Wawrinka and Djokovic are before him.  Even Murray if they meet has a chance.

Nadal is the hot favourite to me. That said, favourites don't win slam titles these days..

Murray is the favourite to me....unless Stepanek is on his way.

LOL Wawrinka to beat Rafa at RG - not in a million years. Djokovic yes, Wawrinka - I don't think so.

The defeat to Querrey proves to me that Rafa will never get back to his previous level. This is the kind of match that he would never lose in his pomp. A final, against a relative novice at this level, and unable to convert 6 BPs. That's so unlike Rafa.

TMF wrote:LOL Wawrinka to beat Rafa at RG - not in a million years. Djokovic yes, Wawrinka - I don't think so.

You want to write him off so blatantly, do it at your peril. Anyway your call is easier to make given the record Nadal has in RG. Wawrinka has beaten Nadal on clay Rome 2015 is st sets. Once unbeatable they all get beaten in due course of time. All of them..

On the OP. He has done it 9 times, so on paper he will always be among the favorites. But it very largely depends on how the Pre-RG tournaments span for him. If he is not winning 2/4 tournaments he normally plays before RG, then his chances are highly diminished. His confidence will be low and he looks vulnerable.

And who knows, maybe RG too may get faster balls this year.

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:

TMF wrote:LOL Wawrinka to beat Rafa at RG - not in a million years. Djokovic yes, Wawrinka - I don't think so.

You want to write him off so blatantly, do it at your peril. Anyway your call is easier to make given the record Nadal has in RG. Wawrinka has beaten Nadal on clay Rome 2015 is st sets. Once unbeatable they all get beaten in due course of time. All of them..

On the OP. He has done it 9 times, so on paper he will always be among the favorites. But it very largely depends on how the Pre-RG tournaments span for him. If he is not winning 2/4 tournaments he normally plays before RG, then his chances are highly diminished. His confidence will be low and he looks vulnerable.

And who knows, maybe RG too may get faster balls this year.

I am not holding my breath...
Why would Babolat produce faster balls & shoot themselves in the foot?

Only if Nadal asks for them...

TMF wrote:LOL Wawrinka to beat Rafa at RG - not in a million years. Djokovic yes, Wawrinka - I don't think so.

The defeat to Querrey proves to me that Rafa will never get back to his previous level. This is the kind of match that he would never lose in his pomp. A final, against a relative novice at this level, and unable to convert 6 BPs. That's so unlike Rafa.

If he went to his previous level, he wouldn't be in top 50.

As ROTLA mentioned the pace of the courts changing will throw more surprise than in the past.

To me the best way to look at it is Nadal always struggled in the first rounds of Wimbledon but thanks to his stamina he managed to get through....until the rest of the field improved...then his lungs were not enough to make the difference. Remember he never beat a seeded player at the USO until they started to provide bigger balls for men there. Now he can win v much better players than then in spite of having faster conds thanks to him taking the ball earlier.

NITB wrote:

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:

TMF wrote:LOL Wawrinka to beat Rafa at RG - not in a million years. Djokovic yes, Wawrinka - I don't think so.

You want to write him off so blatantly, do it at your peril. Anyway your call is easier to make given the record Nadal has in RG. Wawrinka has beaten Nadal on clay Rome 2015 is st sets. Once unbeatable they all get beaten in due course of time. All of them..

On the OP. He has done it 9 times, so on paper he will always be among the favorites. But it very largely depends on how the Pre-RG tournaments span for him. If he is not winning 2/4 tournaments he normally plays before RG, then his chances are highly diminished. His confidence will be low and he looks vulnerable.

And who knows, maybe RG too may get faster balls this year.

I am not holding my breath...
Why would Babolat produce faster balls & shoot themselves in the foot?

Only if Nadal asks for them...

Acapulco was comparatively faster compared to last year ( Hard ). We all know AO was. Dubai and Rotterdam have been for many years now.

And we seeing how fantastic tennis these tournaments have been producing. 

A better balance between attack and defense.

Maybe Babolat/RG can do it too, a bit.

NITB wrote:

TMF wrote:LOL Wawrinka to beat Rafa at RG - not in a million years. Djokovic yes, Wawrinka - I don't think so.

The defeat to Querrey proves to me that Rafa will never get back to his previous level. This is the kind of match that he would never lose in his pomp. A final, against a relative novice at this level, and unable to convert 6 BPs. That's so unlike Rafa.

If he went to his previous level, he wouldn't be in top 50.

You really think this Rafa is better than the Rafa of 08-13?

Maybe Novak this year is also better than he was this time last year?

In fact going by your views (read Tenez's views) if Federer or Nadal play till they're 45 they'll be better than they were at 25!

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:

NITB wrote:

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:

TMF wrote:LOL Wawrinka to beat Rafa at RG - not in a million years. Djokovic yes, Wawrinka - I don't think so.

You want to write him off so blatantly, do it at your peril. Anyway your call is easier to make given the record Nadal has in RG. Wawrinka has beaten Nadal on clay Rome 2015 is st sets. Once unbeatable they all get beaten in due course of time. All of them..

On the OP. He has done it 9 times, so on paper he will always be among the favorites. But it very largely depends on how the Pre-RG tournaments span for him. If he is not winning 2/4 tournaments he normally plays before RG, then his chances are highly diminished. His confidence will be low and he looks vulnerable.

And who knows, maybe RG too may get faster balls this year.

I am not holding my breath...
Why would Babolat produce faster balls & shoot themselves in the foot?

Only if Nadal asks for them...

Acapulco was comparatively faster compared to last year ( Hard ). We all know AO was. Dubai and Rotterdam have been for many years now.

And we seeing how fantastic tennis these tournaments have been producing. 

A better balance between attack and defense.

Maybe Babolat/RG can do it too, a bit.

No. Clay is supposed to be slow. Clay tennis is supposed to be about point construction, long rallies, fitness and movement. What's the point in speeding up everything. We want diversity of playing conditions, not uniformly fast or slow conditions. That way different styles can flourish.

Tenez wrote:As ROTLA mentioned the pace of the courts changing will throw more surprise than in the past.

To me the best way to look at it is Nadal always struggled in the first rounds of Wimbledon but thanks to his stamina he managed to get through....until the rest of the field improved...then his lungs were not enough to make the difference. Remember he never beat a seeded player at the USO until they started to provide bigger balls for men there. Now he can win v much better players than then in spite of having faster conds thanks to him taking the ball earlier.

Yes of course - he was playing 25 shot rallies and five hour matches over and over again in the first week of W

And of course the field improved so much that he could not longer do it. The field being Rosol, Darcis and Brown - all outside the top 100.

Do you even realise how ridiculous your comments sound?

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:

NITB wrote:

raiders_of_the_lost_ark wrote:

TMF wrote:LOL Wawrinka to beat Rafa at RG - not in a million years. Djokovic yes, Wawrinka - I don't think so.

You want to write him off so blatantly, do it at your peril. Anyway your call is easier to make given the record Nadal has in RG. Wawrinka has beaten Nadal on clay Rome 2015 is st sets. Once unbeatable they all get beaten in due course of time. All of them..

On the OP. He has done it 9 times, so on paper he will always be among the favorites. But it very largely depends on how the Pre-RG tournaments span for him. If he is not winning 2/4 tournaments he normally plays before RG, then his chances are highly diminished. His confidence will be low and he looks vulnerable.

And who knows, maybe RG too may get faster balls this year.

I am not holding my breath...
Why would Babolat produce faster balls & shoot themselves in the foot?

Only if Nadal asks for them...

Acapulco was comparatively faster compared to last year ( Hard ). We all know AO was. Dubai and Rotterdam have been for many years now.

And we seeing how fantastic tennis these tournaments have been producing. 

A better balance between attack and defense.

Maybe Babolat/RG can do it too, a bit.

Nadal will pound Wawrinka's SHBH into submission over five sets. There is no consistent formula to counter the high, heavy ball to the SHBH that has to be played from above the shoulder - Federer, who has a more versatile BH than Stan and can take the ball earlier, discovered that.

If Rafa is anywhere near the real Rafa in form then Stan's chances of beating him at RG are very slim. I wouldn't read too much into a tight victory on clay in 2015 when Rafa was literally playing the worse tennis of his career and was down in confidence.

I do agree that a lot of it is about Rafa's form and confidence. We know that if he hits his stride on the clay then only Djokovic at his best can challenge him.

No. We're about coming up to the point where old pros run into some inspired younger kid and get done. Either it's a Kyrgios who hits him off or it's Zverev who just finds the high forehand quite a nice hit, thank you.

I don't mean he can't beat any of these, just that there's an increasing number of negative outcomes and you have to win 7 matches so the compound probability gets nasty.

@TMF This Rafa isn't at the same standard as his physical prime. Not close.
This Wawrinka is oddly better than he was in his physical prime years. He's underachieved.

So I don't know why you have written Wawrinka off so easily?  Nadal has just lost to Querry.  Wawrinka has been showing form in virtually every slam of late - and has won 3 of the 4.  To laugh like Nadal is a huge obstacle is short sighted.  Wawrinka blew Djokovic off the court too.

Daniel wrote:@TMF This Rafa isn't at the same standard as his physical prime. Not close.
This Wawrinka is oddly better than he was in his physical prime years. He's underachieved.

What an odd world we live in Daniel!!!!

Daniel wrote:@TMF This Rafa isn't at the same standard as his physical prime. Not close.
This Wawrinka is oddly better than he was in his physical prime years. He's underachieved.

So I don't know why you have written Wawrinka off so easily?  Nadal has just lost to Querry.  Wawrinka has been showing form in virtually every slam of late - and has won 3 of the 4.  To laugh like Nadal is a huge obstacle is short sighted.  Wawrinka blew Djokovic off the court too.

Of course he has a chance - every player has a chance however small but I objected to your singling out Wawrinka as a big threat to a Rafa as opposed to say Djokovic.

Knowing the matchup between Rafa and SHBHers, Wawrinka's chance of beating him over 5 sets, if Rafa is playing half decent tennis, is very slim. Djokovic doesn't pose the same dilemma ffor SHBHers hence Federer's and Wawrinka's relative success against him compared to Nadal.

Bottom line - if Rafa is playing well and with confidence he will beat Wawrinka on clay - I don't think that's a controversial point of view.

In terms of current form, Wawrinka IS more of a threat. But I didn't place him above Djok or Murray.

Tenez wrote:

Daniel wrote:@TMF This Rafa isn't at the same standard as his physical prime. Not close.
This Wawrinka is oddly better than he was in his physical prime years. He's underachieved.

What an odd world we live in Daniel!!!!

Yup, Wawrinka is one of those odd exceptions you get to the rule.  His problem is he should be on 5 or 6 slams by now because the talent was there - and the potential.  But the mentality wasn't.  Now he's left it too late and will win a fraction of what he should have.