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Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Lydian on Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:17 pm

A wins a win.
Plus Federer has a day longer to recover before we get the violins on overdrive.
Nadal is not a shoe-in to beat Dimi. If Dimi wins then I give 90% chance the title is Rogers which also suits me fine. Anything else for Nadal/Fed is icing on their career cakes...neither is going to struggle in their retirements Winking

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by gallery play on Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:18 pm

Finally!
Federer on Nadal: "I think I played him too may times on clay early in my career."

so, so true!
This gave Nadal the confidence even on grass against Federer. It all went really wrong in Rome 2006. That match cost him 4 slam titles eventually.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by garthmarenghi on Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:32 pm

And Fed shows his hard edge again. Number 18 is on the way!

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Tenez on Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:33 pm

gallery play wrote:Finally!
Federer on Nadal: "I think I played him too may times on clay early in my career."

so, so true!
This gave Nadal the confidence even on grass against Federer. It all went really wrong in Rome 2006. That match cost him 4 slam titles eventually.

Yes but with a larger frame.....fed woudl have put that FH over the net in that MP he had in Rome 06...and that woudl have changed a lot of things on clay too.

fed shoudl blame himself for having stuck to a 90inch racquet when everybody was playing with a 100inch. That is his biggest career decision mistake. .

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Tenez on Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:34 pm

garthmarenghi wrote:And Fed shows his hard edge again. Number 18 is on the way!

Gosh I wish I had your faith.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by gallery play on Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:43 pm

Against Nishi
time: 3:24
total points: 312
covered: 2832 m   
covered p/p 9,1 m

Against Stan
time: 3:02
total points: 278
covered: 1247 m  
covered p/p: 4,5 m

Frankly it wasn't that tough according the stats..

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Tenez on Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:50 pm

Very surprising stats. Though he certainly gave up running for 2 sets.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Tenez on Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:51 pm

Nadal will be deadly with his angled shots. Hopefully Fed will be able to break his timing by constantly going to the net.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Jahu on Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:55 pm

Fed will slice/drop shot Nadal till he breaks his back, if only fed could give us a service same as with Berdy.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by garthmarenghi on Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:57 pm

Tenez wrote:
garthmarenghi wrote:And Fed shows his hard edge again. Number 18 is on the way!

Gosh I wish I had your faith.

I'm only really worried if Dimitrov decides to come of age against our man. I believe Nadal will be easier fodder for this Federer.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by gallery play on Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:58 pm

Tenez wrote:
gallery play wrote:Finally!
Federer on Nadal: "I think I played him too may times on clay early in my career."

so, so true!
This gave Nadal the confidence even on grass against Federer. It all went really wrong in Rome 2006. That match cost him 4 slam titles eventually.

Yes but with a larger frame.....fed woudl have put that FH over the net in that MP he had in Rome 06...and that woudl have changed a lot of things on clay too.

fed shoudl blame himself for having stuck to a 90inch racquet when everybody was playing with a 100inch. That is his biggest career decision mistake. .
Thanks to Paul Annacone.
He -as Fed's coach- prolonged the proces  by claiming making that change is a 50-50 proposition..

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by legendkillar on Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:58 pm

Let me get my big asterisk marker out....Just kidding.

Don't get all this doom and gloom. Conditions are slightly quicker and Feds stats are showing he is by far the most energy economic player in the tournament and it's still not enough for some.

He is in the final and has the best chance he's ever had. Probably more so than the US in 14.

Now or never. I hope he does it. Be a nice swansong for 2017.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Jahu on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:02 pm

I would not cry if Fed loses to Dimi.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by gallery play on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:08 pm

Tenez wrote:Nadal will be deadly with his angled shots. Hopefully Fed will be able to break his timing by constantly going to the net.

For me the way to go is avoiding crosscourt rallies at all costs. Everytime Nadal goes crosscourt, Fed should go DTL.
That will shorten the rallies. It's a high risk game, cause the court will open up for NAdal too, but the match will be played on Fed's terms. That's essential.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Daniel on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:12 pm

He's the greatest.  Not many people can do what Federer just has...  35 years old, back from injury after 6 or more months, and reaches the final. Wins two 5 setters.  Phenomenal.

As for Nadal on clay, we all knew it. Nadal was able to get tons of confidence making Fed the whipping boy on the surface and he was too crap to reach Federer on any of the faster surfaces during his dominant period.  Thanks to that, when they did eventually meet on them, he was already weakened mentally - made worse as he left his prime years too.


Last edited by Daniel on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:15 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Tenez on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:15 pm

gallery play wrote:
Tenez wrote:Nadal will be deadly with his angled shots. Hopefully Fed will be able to break his timing by constantly going to the net.

For me the way to go is avoiding crosscourt rallies at all costs. Everytime Nadal goes crosscourt, Fed should go DTL.
That will shorten the rallies. It's a high risk game, cause the court will open up for NAdal too, but the match will be played on Fed's terms. That's essential.
you think so? The DTL shots can actually open the courts. To me the trick is to go centre court or sharp cross court to open up. The DTL has to be the last shot cause if not, Fed will do lots of running. .....All about execution.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Jahu on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:15 pm

Mirka must be doing her job good too  Laugh

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Slippy on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:15 pm

Lydian wrote:A wins a win.
Plus Federer has a day longer to recover before we get the violins on overdrive.
Nadal is not a shoe-in to beat Dimi. If Dimi wins then I give 90% chance the title is Rogers which also suits me fine. Anything else for Nadal/Fed is icing on their career cakes...neither is going to struggle in their retirements Winking
Yeah, but a win for Rafa would put him within touching distance of 17 (with the French up next). A win for Fed definitely puts him out of reach of Rafa in my view. 

I can't believe those distance stats - 4 metres would basically be the distance to move to play one shot. Was the match really that serve-dominated? In any event, clearly Fed won't be feeling 3/4 mile in his legs three days later! He's in perfect shape for the final.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Tenez on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:16 pm

Daniel wrote:He's the greatest.  Not many people can do what Federer just has...  35 years old, back from injury after 6 or more months, and reaches the final. Wins two 5 setters.  Phenomenal.
So don't be ashamed to revert to your Federerking pseudo...Winking

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Daniel on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:16 pm

And you are all jumping the gun with regards to Nadal.  Dimi can take him out. He definitely can.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Daniel on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:17 pm

Tenez wrote:
Daniel wrote:He's the greatest.  Not many people can do what Federer just has...  35 years old, back from injury after 6 or more months, and reaches the final. Wins two 5 setters.  Phenomenal.
So don't be ashamed to revert to your Federerking pseudo...Winking

I can't revert to that; it's too fanboyish. I chose it quickly because I couldn't think of anything else.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:19 pm

gallery play wrote:can't be satisfied with this result. I preferred Fed in 3 or else Stan.

Ah well, maybe tommorow something silly happens.
 Its okay, Fed gets an extra day.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:19 pm

Jahu wrote:I would not cry if Fed loses to Dimi.

Now why I am not surprised...

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Jahu on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:21 pm

NITB wrote:
Jahu wrote:I would not cry if Fed loses to Dimi.

Now why I am not surprised...

Because Dimi is ok, sure I want Fed to win, but it would be less of a damage if he lost to Nadal, or Djoko.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:26 pm

gallery play wrote:Finally!
Federer on Nadal: "I think I played him too may times on clay early in my career."

so, so true!
This gave Nadal the confidence even on grass against Federer. It all went really wrong in Rome 2006. That match cost him 4 slam titles eventually.
This is what gives me hope.
This new boldness.

This: what the hack you only live once and that once is here and now mindset.

Those six months of burning for the game, and man is he going to give his all on Sunday or what.


It's the flight that matters, mad this albatross is going to get home.

It's got to happen.

I simply has to.

It must.



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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:28 pm

gallery play wrote:
Tenez wrote:
gallery play wrote:Finally!
Federer on Nadal: "I think I played him too may times on clay early in my career."

so, so true!
This gave Nadal the confidence even on grass against Federer. It all went really wrong in Rome 2006. That match cost him 4 slam titles eventually.

Yes but with a larger frame.....fed woudl have put that FH over the net in that MP he had in Rome 06...and that woudl have changed a lot of things on clay too.

fed shoudl blame himself for having stuck to a 90inch racquet when everybody was playing with a 100inch. That is his biggest career decision mistake. .
Thanks to Paul Anaconda
He -as Fed's coach- prolonged the proces  by claiming making that change is a 50-50 proposition..

I can't stand that man.
Another Sampras-like egomaniac.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by gallery play on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:29 pm

Tenez wrote:
gallery play wrote:
Tenez wrote:Nadal will be deadly with his angled shots. Hopefully Fed will be able to break his timing by constantly going to the net.

For me the way to go is avoiding crosscourt rallies at all costs. Everytime Nadal goes crosscourt, Fed should go DTL.
That will shorten the rallies. It's a high risk game, cause the court will open up for NAdal too, but the match will be played on Fed's terms. That's essential.
you think so? The DTL shots can actually open the courts. To me the trick is to go centre court or sharp cross court to open up. The DTL has to be the last shot cause if not, Fed will do lots of running.  .....All about execution.
Yes a DTL opens the court, forces Nadal to go for winners, or else the next ball will fly past him.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by gallery play on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:31 pm

NITB wrote:
gallery play wrote:Finally!
Federer on Nadal: "I think I played him too may times on clay early in my career."

so, so true!
This gave Nadal the confidence even on grass against Federer. It all went really wrong in Rome 2006. That match cost him 4 slam titles eventually.
This is what gives me hope.
This new boldness.

This: what the hack you only live once and that once is here and now mindset.

Those six months of burning for the game, and man is he going to give his all on Sunday or what.


It's the flight that matters, mad this albatross is going to get home.

It's got to happen.

I simply has to.

It must.


love your poetic mood Thumbs Up

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:31 pm

gallery play wrote:
Tenez wrote:
gallery play wrote:
Tenez wrote:Nadal will be deadly with his angled shots. Hopefully Fed will be able to break his timing by constantly going to the net.

For me the way to go is avoiding crosscourt rallies at all costs. Everytime Nadal goes crosscourt, Fed should go DTL.
That will shorten the rallies. It's a high risk game, cause the court will open up for NAdal too, but the match will be played on Fed's terms. That's essential.
you think so? The DTL shots can actually open the courts. To me the trick is to go centre court or sharp cross court to open up. The DTL has to be the last shot cause if not, Fed will do lots of running.  .....All about execution.
Yes a DTL opens the court, forces Nadal to go for winners, or else the next ball will fly past him.

Fed has two fresh sets left in him. That's how long he could go DTL today.

After that, his serve is in God's hands.


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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:32 pm

gallery play wrote:
NITB wrote:
gallery play wrote:Finally!
Federer on Nadal: "I think I played him too may times on clay early in my career."

so, so true!
This gave Nadal the confidence even on grass against Federer. It all went really wrong in Rome 2006. That match cost him 4 slam titles eventually.
This is what gives me hope.
This new boldness.

This: what the hack you only live once and that once is here and now mindset.

Those six months of burning for the game, and man is he going to give his all on Sunday or what.


It's the flight that matters, mad this albatross is going to get home.

It's got to happen.

I simply has to.

It must.


love your poetic mood Thumbs Up

Hug

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:52 pm

Lydian wrote:A wins a win.
Plus Federer has a day longer to recover before we get the violins on overdrive.
Nadal is not a shoe-in to beat Dimi. If Dimi wins then I give 90% chance the title is Rogers which also suits me fine. Anything else for Nadal/Fed is icing on their career cakes...neither is going to struggle in their retirements Winking

Dimi's BH is 20% of Fed's and Stan's.

His only advantage are his young legs...and I don't know what else...

He is no choker, that's good.

Maybe he will want to prove himself in front of his pop-star gf.

Dimi ain't a smart cookie, but you never know what may go wild in that kind of head.
I am sure he'll give a better fight than Raonic.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Lydian on Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:05 pm

Not sure I agree on the 20% BH point...but I take your point that he's not at their level. But then who is with Fed generally and Stan arguably has the best SHBH of the past 25 years or so. However Dimi can hit flat and hard, which is the type of play which troubles Rafa the most. And Dimi is adept on fast courts. So let's see...I've given up wondering which Rafa will turn up on court these days.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Daniel on Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:16 pm

I don't think Stan is that much better SHBH than fed was in 2004-7.  Go back and look what a beast he was with it and with a smaller racquet.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by bogbrush on Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:46 pm

Well, just got to Reykjavik so missed the match. A very pleasant surprise! Magnificent result to beat Stan. That's 3 top-tenners in the comeback tourney. Let's have 4.

Nobody is talking much about Feds MTO. Is the consensus that it's not serious?

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by bogbrush on Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:05 pm

According to the Aussie Open site, though a 5 setter, Federer has only ran 1247m at an average of 4.7m per point. Does this sound right?

I know it's not everything but that's not too wearing surely?

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Tenez on Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:33 pm

bogbrush wrote:Well, just got to Reykjavik so missed the match. A very pleasant surprise! Magnificent result to beat Stan. That's 3 top-tenners in the comeback tourney. Let's have 4.

Nobody is talking much about Feds MTO. Is the consensus that it's not serious?

Sorry to hear! What the hell are you doing there?

Reg teh MTO he says he had had a leg problem all week. I must say I saw do a strange move before that MTO as is something was wrong about it.

The thing is Fed will typically hyde anything physical before the match so there is not much we can say about it.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Tenez on Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:34 pm

bogbrush wrote:According to the Aussie Open site, though a 5 setter, Federer has only ran 1247m at an average of 4.7m per point. Does this sound right?

I know it's not everything but that's not too wearing surely?
Yes that's the number we got too....very surprised by that.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Jan 26, 2017 4:31 pm

For me, the key will be Federer's mental freshness, how he will start that match.

We have seen that he didn't run so much today, yet was exhausted as soon as Stan broke him...the thought of having to work hard...multiply that by however many times you like vs Nadal.

On the other hand, if anyone has never ever stopped fighting to the last ball - it's Federer.

And judghing from that interview he looks as ready as he will ever be. He wants to prove something, and I wamt to see that index finger of his tiwirlimg up in the air again!

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Veejay on Thu Jan 26, 2017 4:51 pm

gallery play wrote:Finally!
Federer on Nadal: "I think I played him too may times on clay early in my career."

so, so true!
This gave Nadal the confidence even on grass against Federer. It all went really wrong in Rome 2006. That match cost him 4 slam titles eventually.
it was an interesting comment from roger in his post match interview 
if im not mistaken he has a habit of doing this,the premature mental games way before the match even started 
it might work against the likes of murray but im  not so sure about nadal
however this could be a sign that he really believes that he can beat nadal this time
just makes me wonder what he has up his sleeve to be so certain 
i am happy to see roger make the final,but ill be even more gutted if he were to lose to nadal again

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Daniel on Thu Jan 26, 2017 4:57 pm

Or he just told the truth.  Radical, I know.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by bogbrush on Thu Jan 26, 2017 5:37 pm

Tenez wrote:
bogbrush wrote:Well, just got to Reykjavik so missed the match. A very pleasant surprise! Magnificent result to beat Stan. That's 3 top-tenners in the comeback tourney. Let's have 4.

Nobody is talking much about Feds MTO. Is the consensus that it's not serious?

Sorry to hear! What the hell are you doing there?

Reg teh MTO he says he had had a leg problem all week. I must say I saw do a strange move before that MTO as is something was wrong about it.

The thing is Fed will typically hyde anything physical before the match so there is not much we can say about it.
Long weekend with Mrs B, we're going to various cool places, Reykjavik just the stopover.

Downside is I'll also miss the final but maybe this is best for my heart! I have it on to record so either I have a treat when I get home or I delete it.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Veejay on Thu Jan 26, 2017 5:59 pm

Daniel wrote:Or he just told the truth.  Radical, I know.
i know his opinions are often radical... erm
so how much are you betting on federer winning the final daniel?

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Daniel on Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:02 pm

Nothing.  I don't make 50/50 bets (unless the price is right - like 5-1).  That's for suckers who play roulette. And if Dimi goes through, a 70-30 chance is still not worth the money you'd need to place on Fed to get anything decent back. He'll probably be evens odds anyway.

Smart bets are on the player who has shown form etc.  That's something the betting public and bookies miss every time. Like when Wawrinka beat Djok for example.  They made him 5-1 or 6-1 outsider, which was stupid.

If Nadal goes through, Fed has 25% chance of winning, I rek.  If Dimi goes tough, he has 75%.

Nadal has mental edge on Federer and just plays the same boring points waiting for a mistake.  Federer usually goes for far too much against him too often - and these days his 1st serve disappears too against Djok/Nadal.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by gallery play on Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:25 pm

BTW: where's Truffin? We need updates on Fed's upper leg!

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Daniel on Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:52 pm

If Federer does play Kneedal - and if he is to lose - please not another timid performance like the one against Djok, where he was beaten before he even played a point.

He is really looking up for this challenge though!

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by Jahu on Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:55 pm

...and wtf was that: I am Nadal's number 1 fan? Was that Nike orders?  Laugh

As they get older, getting friendly, with Fed being at Nadals Academy etc.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

Post by summerblues on Fri Jan 27, 2017 3:48 am

Lydian wrote:Anything else for Nadal/Fed is icing on their career cakes...neither is going to struggle in their retirements Winking
Still, just wait for Sunday and see if we will take it all in stride (assuming Rafa gets there, of course).  You will be all nervous hoping Rafa wins, most of us that Fed does.

Except for Tenez.  He will be happy whoever wins the title.

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Re: Oz open prediction game - Day 11!

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