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ATP Tour Final - The Draw

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ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Daniel on Sun Nov 08, 2015 5:15 pm

Let's look at best and worst scenario for Federer...

Federer best case scenario:


Djokovic
Wawrinka
Nadal
Nishikori
--------
Murray
Federer
Berdych
Ferrer

Odds: 1 in 8

Federer worst case scenario:


Djokovic
Federer
Nadal
Nishikori
--------
Murray
Wawrinka
Berdych
Ferrer

Odds: 1 in 8

Of course, it's 1 in 4 for Federer, Nadal and Djokovic to be in the same half. And the same goes for Djokovic, Nadal, Wawrinka.  Knowing Fed's luck, he'll have the group of death.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Sun Nov 08, 2015 6:19 pm

When is the draw coming out?

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Tenez on Sun Nov 08, 2015 7:03 pm

I actually think Fed's worse scenario is actually his best. With a bit of luck ,he could be second of that pool (behind of Djoko) meaning he will only play Djoko in Final...if Djoko beats Stan....and is fresh...whereas I don;t think Fed will be troubled by any of those best scenarios in the semi.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Daniel on Sun Nov 08, 2015 9:53 pm

Nadal and Djokovic can both beat Federer...  And 2 losses would v likely be the end of it.

On other hand, I don't see Ferrer and current Berdych beating him.

I would say Nadal is a bigger threat than Berdych is.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Tenez on Sun Nov 08, 2015 9:58 pm

Sure but he needs an easy semi more importantly. So it;s better to be on Djoko's side.....I guess.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Sun Nov 08, 2015 10:19 pm

I think the organisers will do their best to give Nadal a chance for the SF.
That means:

Group A
Djokovic
Wawrinka
Berdych
Nishikori

Group B
Murray
Federer
Nadal
Ferrer

Nishikori may pull out of tournament after one match.
I think he is showing up only because of sponsor pressure.

Federer's loss to Ramos in Shanghai is really costing him now.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by luvsports! on Sun Nov 08, 2015 10:23 pm

I'm not sure Nadal will beat Nole again at this rate, certainly not at 02.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Sun Nov 08, 2015 10:26 pm

Nadal has no chance of beating Nole anywhere any more.
His goal will be to scrape through to the SF and make a respectable showing for his sponsors, then work like a dog in the off-season for 2016.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Daniel on Mon Nov 09, 2015 5:32 am

Wouldn't be too sure that Nadal can't beat Djokovic on clay.  He will certainly be second favourite for clay, even in his current form.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:42 am

Well, when it comes to Nadal everything is possible...though I really can't see what he can do to bother Nole.

The way he used to beat him in olden days was by draining him physically and even then it was very close.

Now when Nadal's tennis requires even more energy (I believe playing closer to the baseline and trying to time and muscle the ball with his grip simultaneously requires perfect footwork on every shot, more focus and is mentally more taxing), and at the same time Nole's mastered energy management by increasing his own stamina and improving ball-timing - I just can't see it happen, provided both are healthy.

On top of it all, the opposition is fitter too, so Nadal will not be cutting through them in early rounds like he used to.

Stan could deal with Nadal on Chatrier now, too.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Daniel on Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:58 am

I don't think Nadal's game does require more energy, because Djokovic is doing no better now than he was in 2011.  I also don't see where you are getting "opposition is fitter too".  There's absolutely no reason to believe this, especially since this year no one has been challenging Djokovic, and many not challenging a 34 year old.

34 year olds are not fitter than ever, no matter what you want to believe. And that same 34 year old reached 2 slam finals this year.  That's not a good thing - it's called a weak field.  You and Tenez really do need to stop making statements as if they are fact.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:07 am

Well, Stan beat Nole in RG, didn't he?
Fognini also beat Nadal several times simply because he is fitter now.

Nadal used to beat his opponents with a fool-proof formula: drain them of energy in set one and then cause them to play risky shots as they simply could not last with him in rallies any more.

Fognini does not need to panic like that any more as he knows he can stay and keep up with Nadal now.
Being a superior ball-striker and a shotmaker, you can see how that extra fitness has changed the balance.
As he is an attacker, it gives him peace of mind helps him in tight moments during an second or third set.

Stan is the same, plus he's also matured his timing.

"Being physically prepared" is the main goal of players now.
That's why Dimi hired Rasheed and not Edberg so to speak...

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Tue Nov 10, 2015 8:07 am

No tennis for only one day and I am already missing it Yikes

So, can't wait for the WTF to start, though I'd prefer just another masters 1000 instead.

I tried to find what day the draw is out but only found the prize money info....

EMIRATES ATP RANKINGS POINTS (SINGLES & DOUBLES)
ROUND-ROBIN MATCH WIN 200
SEMI-FINAL WIN 400
FINAL WIN 500
UNDEFEATED CHAMPION 1500


SINGLES PRIZE MONEY
ALTERNATE $95,000
PARTICIPATION FEE $167,000
ROUND-ROBIN MATCH WIN $167,000
SEMI-FINAL MATCH WIN $510,000
FINAL WIN $1,050,000
UNDEFEATED CHAMPION $2,228,000


Sounds a lot.
And proves the old saying: you need money to make money...
I can just imagine all the deals and sponsors running around behind the scenes, tennis is probably secondary to some players.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Autumnleaf on Tue Nov 10, 2015 4:48 pm

Hard to get excited about this tournament when they could just as well hand the trophy to Djokovic already. All other players will be fillers with zero chance to win it all and at best compete for RU. 

As has been the case all year, of course. Such dominance is truly unprecedented afaik, but I can't say I appreciate it much. Very low entertainment value.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Tenez on Tue Nov 10, 2015 5:07 pm

You will be surprised AL!


...hopefully! Blush

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Daniel on Tue Nov 10, 2015 6:00 pm

I don't think it's a nailed on certainty for Djok to win.  I'd say it's v likely he will make the semi / final and likely he will win.  But not nailed on by any means.  Federer and Wawrinka have a good chance.  Murray might surprise.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Tenez on Tue Nov 10, 2015 6:18 pm

when is the draw?

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Autumnleaf on Tue Nov 10, 2015 7:34 pm

Tenez wrote:when is the draw?
Thursday.

@FK Barring a miracle (something like sick/injured Djokovic) Murray has zero chance. He doesn't have the game to beat Djokovic. The other two have a very small chance, but they would have to improve a lot on their recent performances and be healthy.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Daniel on Tue Nov 10, 2015 9:39 pm

We'll see.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Tenez on Wed Nov 11, 2015 12:18 am

Yep, agree. Murray has 0 chance and frankly only managed to beat Djoko when Djoko was under par. Was different in 2011 up to 2014....but Djoko has added a few gears since.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Daniel on Wed Nov 11, 2015 1:58 am

So by that logic (I don't agree), Djokovic can't be under par ever again.  OK.

Also, since you didn't know Murray had beaten Djokovic this year until I brought it up, I have to believe that you're calling Djokovic under par simply to explain away the loss.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Autumnleaf on Wed Nov 11, 2015 12:53 pm

FedererKing wrote:Also, since you didn't know Murray had beaten Djokovic this year until I brought it up, I have to believe that you're calling Djokovic under par simply to explain away the loss.
Yeah, he has beaten him for the first time in what? 3 years? Djokovic wasn't playing well in the whole American HC season imho, might be because the courts aren't really to his liking. Murray edged out a win there. WTF is very different from that, it's slow HC that Djokovic just loves. 

Even if he is slightly sub-par (tbd) he can fall back on his default defensive mode and Murray isn't the one who can hit through him on a more regular basis, especially since he is not used to playing an aggressive game. Djokovic didn't really look that convincing in Paris either and he still won the tournament. Djokovic's serve-return combo is on the whole superior to Murray's, mostly due to the latter's weaker second serve. Should they meet I expect a match similar to the Paris match.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Daniel on Wed Nov 11, 2015 11:55 pm

OK, glad we have that covered.  Murray can't beat the impossible to beat Djokovic haha.

I assume, since this is the case, you'll be heaping unlimited amounts of money on Djokovic (if they meet)?  And if not, why not?

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Nov 12, 2015 3:40 pm

Live stream for the draw:


http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/barclays-atp-world-tour-finals-live-draw

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Daniel on Thu Nov 12, 2015 9:50 pm

Federer's draw could have gone better, but he has a good chance to progress.  Nadal might also squeeze through depending on which Wawrinka turns up.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Nov 12, 2015 10:31 pm

Just got back from my club. Won all three sets incl one with a bagel! Somersault
I stuffed the first MP with an overenthusiastic  volley, but managed to use the last MP by shanking one. Blush
Then I went on to buy three sessions at WTF that guarantee me seeing Fed twice.

Your favourite tennis reporter will be there Cool

Get in while you can people, tickets still going for human prices.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 12, 2015 10:48 pm

have the pools been sorted? what are they?

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Nov 12, 2015 10:50 pm

Tenez wrote:have the pools been sorted? what are they?
Nole, Fed, Berd, Nishi group A
Murray, Stan, Nadal, Ferrer group B
Looks good to me.

What do you think?

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Nov 12, 2015 10:51 pm

Nole opening with Nishi on Sunday afternoon, Fed- Berd evening session.

Both good matches. I'll be there for Fed-Berd one.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 12, 2015 10:58 pm

yes it's not bad. In fact I am quite excited to see fed play Djoko fresh. That has not been the case for a while.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:06 pm

Tenez wrote:yes it's not bad. In fact I am quite excited to see fed play Djoko fresh. That has not been the case for a while.
I gathered they are going to play on Tuesday, so got both sessions. Just in case!
Good point about Fed being fresh.

Who do you think will make top two in group B?

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by raiders_of_the_lost_ark on Fri Nov 13, 2015 7:27 am

noleisthebest wrote:
Tenez wrote:have the pools been sorted? what are they?
Nole, Fed, Berd, Nishi group A
Murray, Stan, Nadal, Ferrer group B
Looks good to me.

What do you think?

Its good one. Gorup B is group of death. Nishikori might pull out, his replacement Gasquet isn't going to bother anyone either.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:00 am

Group B is very tricky, indeed!

Nadal-Murray match should be very interesting.

Draw is balanced very nicely.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Daniel on Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:03 am

Federer won't have nerves of jelly in a group game at the Finals.  If it were a Slam final, I'd shove all my money on Djokovic.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:21 am

I saw Nole-Fed twice in O2, Nole won both but that was before Fed changed the racquet.

So definitely should be very interesting as here, during RR stage, they have a day of rest, as well.

On a different note, did anyone see news how ATP is now forcing WTF players to undergo thorough medical examination before the tournament, to prevent injured players just turning up under sponsors' pressure and playing poorly.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/~/media/files/rulebook/2015/2015-atp-rulebook_sept15.pdf

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Tenez on Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:58 am

noleisthebest wrote:
On a different note, did anyone see news how ATP is now forcing WTF players to undergo thorough medical examination before the tournament, to prevent injured players just turning up under sponsors' pressure and playing poorly.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/~/media/files/rulebook/2015/2015-atp-rulebook_sept15.pdf

Good move.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Fri Nov 13, 2015 11:24 am

Nadal seems desperate to win WTF:

==================================

"I am not sure if it is 100 percent fair that we qualify for the World Tour Finals playing on grass, hard, clay and indoors, and since 2005, when I qualified [for the first time], it is already 11 years that every single time [it has been played] on indoor hard courts.

I believe that it's not fair that a player like me really never played on a surface that was a little bit more favorable. I always played on the worst surface possible for me. If it's indoor at London, then great, but you can build a different type of surface there. It is a fantastic place to organize a World Tour Finals. The atmosphere is just amazing and I am very happy it is there. I enjoy it every time I have had the chance to be there, but we can play on clay there too.”

==================================

It's funny how the fairest, even-bouncing  surface is the worst for him!
It has even slowed down since moving to London...

I am sure Federer would prefer to play on fresh grass, too...

I do like clay and grass, but really, they don't make much difference these days, do they?

And doesn't AO also have a similar low bouncing slow hard surface?

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by luvsports! on Fri Nov 13, 2015 12:32 pm

Aus isn't low bouncing.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Fri Nov 13, 2015 2:13 pm

But it plays similar to O2.

At the end of the day, Nadal did make final there once.
I was fortunate to see that lovely match Big Grin

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by luvsports! on Fri Nov 13, 2015 3:57 pm

Only because it is slow. 
It deffo isn't low bouncing, not as high as Miami and co but still bouncy.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Tenez on Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:06 pm

yep AO and wtf are not bouncing the same. one is a kind of thick carpet (wtf)....the other is a hard court under scorching temps...so both slow but reacting differently...and balls might be different too.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Sat Nov 14, 2015 4:29 pm

WTF is not a thick carpet.
It's a hard court with no give at all, the only problem: it's rough as a sandpaper.
If it was a bit smoother, it would be perfect!

Don't know what AO is like, but as you say conditions can change dramatically from hot daytime to cool evening.

That's why indoor is the fairest surface - even bounce every time.

Nadal has no reason to complain.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Sat Nov 14, 2015 4:32 pm

Any thoughts on group B?

I reckon Stan and Murray.
Or Stan and Nadal.


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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by DECIMA on Sat Nov 14, 2015 4:33 pm

I've got tickets for Stan Nadal Bubbly

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Sat Nov 14, 2015 4:37 pm

Excellent!

Don't forget to give us a full report Winking

I'm watching Fed-Berd tomorrow and then both sessions on Tuesday.

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by DECIMA on Sat Nov 14, 2015 4:45 pm

noleisthebest wrote:Excellent!

Don't forget to give us a full report Winking

I'm watching Fed-Berd tomorrow and then both sessions on Tuesday.
My friend desperately wants to watch Fed vs Djokovic, but he doesn't know which session to book. I told him that if he waits for the scheduled to be released, the tickets on main website will be gone, and he'll be left with viagogo who will charge ridiculous prices, or it'll be too high up in Tier 4.

So he's going to take the risk now maybe, but which session is most likely ? Tuesday evening ?

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Sat Nov 14, 2015 5:00 pm

The organisers would be crazy if they played Fed-Nole in the afternoon...but I just didn't want to risk it, so got both.
If I were your friend, I'd get both sessions with Axs in lower tier now as viagogo is already selling double prices for sold out sessions.
Upper tier is really a waste of time and money.

Are you going to try and see Nadal-Murray?
That one should be a cracker!

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by DECIMA on Sat Nov 14, 2015 5:52 pm

It could be on Thursday as well, right ?

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by noleisthebest on Sat Nov 14, 2015 6:26 pm

Theoretically,yes, but I doubt Berd or Nishi will win tomorrow.

My understanding is that on Tuesday winners of Sunday play each other, also losers.
So I am assuming it will be Berd-Nishi and Fed-Nole line-up.


I expect Berd to blow Nishi off on Tuesday and then on Thursday play the winner of Fed-Nole.

Unless Nishi pulls out after Sunday because of the back injury (wouldn't surprise me...) and Richie replaces him. Then,  it will be a bit more interesting, maybe...

Fed-Nole on Tuesday should be sumptuous!

If Stan tops group B, things will become very interesting!

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

Post by Tenez on Sat Nov 14, 2015 9:22 pm

noleisthebest wrote:WTF is not a thick carpet.
It's a hard court with no give at all, the only problem: it's rough as a sandpaper.
If it was a bit smoother, it would be perfect!

Don't know what AO is like, but as you say conditions can change dramatically from hot daytime to cool evening.

That's why indoor is the fairest surface - even bounce every time.

Nadal has no reason to complain.

Are you sure of this? I remember it is a carpet (slow one of course) set on wooden floor. I even remember players complaining about bumps on the carpet, even tapping on it .

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Re: ATP Tour Final - The Draw

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