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ATP Masters 1000: Paris

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Wed Nov 04, 2015 5:39 pm

So at least you agree with my comment on Stan, I presume.

regarding Berdych, he won Paris cause at that time, there was no road runners, surfaces were fast and only had Ljubicic to stop him on that surface. Nowadays the youngsters simply always find the top 4 on their way.

regarding his 2010 Wimby final....against made the most of Federer injured, Djoko's worst match ever (according to him) and it was completely useless in that final. At least Dimi and co provide a better fight against the top 4 players than Berdych did. And yes Berdych got stronger.....when his legs got much bigger....that was the defining moment more than anything.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Wed Nov 04, 2015 6:39 pm

When you have troiki lopez playing 30 shots rallies, you know there is something wrong with the courts pace!

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Wed Nov 04, 2015 6:52 pm

Ashcroft calling the slow paris court.....a trickled sponge!

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:11 pm

I thought Fed woudl tank his match v Seppi. I was wrong!

As Ashcroft said, he is making this tricked sponge look fast!

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:14 pm

This is one of fed best display.....not sure anybody else watching.....sure it is against Seppi.....but it's beautiful!

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by noleisthebest on Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:53 pm

Yes, that was quite special. He had the ball where the eye wanted it. And made it look effortless.
Poor Seppi was left dizzy.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Daniel on Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:00 pm

Autumnleaf wrote:
Tenez wrote:Same thing for berdych actually. he was a journeyman for most of his career. he only got better at 27 onwards.
Berdych got better? Surely not results-wise. He won his only masters event in 2005 at age 20, hasn't come close since. He made Wimbledon final in 2010, aged 25. So he certainly wasn't a journeyman before 27. Quite the opposite, he was a real top player and a threat to the very best. Now not so much. With the help of a soft draw he made the SF of the AO and the F of Monte Carlo. He lost in R16 in RG, Wimbledon and US Open, winning just 2 sets in those matches.

Tenez, Autumnleaf is right and the stats cannot be argued with.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:03 am

What stats FK? Berdych was never a threat . The first time he was able to beat Nadal in a slam was 2015!!!! He only beat fed in a slam in 2010 when fed admitted himslef being injured and in 2012 during his back problem.....

...oh and the other stat is Berdych highest ranking was May 2015 when he was nber 4 in the world....not number 40 like when he won Paris or number 8 in the world when he reached Wimby final.

One can use the stats the way they wish....the fact remain berdych higher ranking is when he was nearly 30, not 25!

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:30 am

Berdych's path is very similar to Stan's.

They were both known as big chokers for many years.
And suddenly they both stopped being ones a few years ago.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Nov 05, 2015 9:29 am

Murray-Goffin very interesting in the light of coming Davis Cup final.

They only played once, in Wimbledon.
If Murray beats Goffin convincingly it is going to be one very dull Davis Cup weekend.

Bercy plays as slow as clay so conditions will be similar.

Murray will return Goffin's serve more easily than the other way round if both serve well.

So a a slow physical fadeaway by Goffin...I don't know what he can do to beat Murray from the baseline.

Be risky?
He'll need some luck.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:55 am

Did not watch it.....the score is terrifying.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Aut0Gr4ph on Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:59 am

noleisthebest wrote:Murray-Goffin very interesting in the light of coming Davis Cup final.

They only played once, in Wimbledon.
If Murray beats Goffin convincingly it is going to be one very dull Davis Cup weekend.

Bercy plays as slow as clay so conditions will be similar.

Murray will return Goffin's serve more easily than the other way round if both serve well.

So a a slow physical fadeaway by Goffin...I don't know what he can do to beat Murray from the baseline.

Be risky?
He'll need some luck.
He really shouldn't have run over that black cat on the way to the stadium then.....

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Aut0Gr4ph on Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:00 am

Insulting that Gypsy washerwoman probably didn't help either.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Aut0Gr4ph on Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:09 am

Tenez wrote:Did not watch it.....the score is terrifying.
Not much point really. Usual story. Slow surface prevented Goffin expressing his superior talent and Murray's freakish fitness allowed him to dismantle Goffin's serve and crush lots of BHDTL winners. What a travesty!

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:11 am

It certainly explains some of it. Having brawn on these courts is a distinctive advantage.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Autumnleaf on Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:15 am

Tenez wrote:One can use the stats the way they wish....the fact remain berdych higher ranking is when he was nearly 30, not 25!
You really want to argue that Berdych was any good this year? In the beginning of his career he was beating Nadal regularly to the point that young Nadal said he was always looking in the draw for Berdych. But then Berdych was left behind and is now back to being the whipping boy of every top 10 player. He is 2-10 vs. Top 10 for the year, his only victory coming vs. Nadal at the AO and vs. Raonic by way of retirement. That's how he made MC final and got to No. 4. Big Grin

At the AO the way Nadal was playing he should have lost to Smyzcek. It wasn't even all that surprising that he got beat by Berdych. Next Berdych got bageled by Murray.

Yesterday he scraped through vs. ERV. Let's see whether he can notch his second legit top 10 win today vs. Tsonga.

Wawrinka's rise to the top was indeed a surprise, but it's not like he's suddenly challenging for No. 1. He said that he was told early that success would come to him later than to other guys:

"A few times I told myself ‘Maybe that’s it, maybe my best ranking is 2008, No  9 in the world, and I’m born to be top-20 for 10 years.’ But Magnus [Norman, Wawrinka’s coach] helped me a lot. We changed a few things in my game, like my forehand. Physically I’m at the top because I’m working with the same fitness trainer. He always told me from the age of 16 and 17 that I am not going to be at the top at 24 like many players, it was going to be later, at 27 or 28."

I found that very interesting, but I have no idea how that could have been foreseen. Also, doesn't he have the same fitness coach as Federer?

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Autumnleaf on Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:18 am

Tenez wrote:Did not watch it.....the score is terrifying.
Terrible, boring match full of Murray grinding and ugly, muscled shots, just like Aut0Gr4ph wrote. Paris Bercy should be ashamed for offering such a molasse surface. 

For Belgium's sake I hope they will opt for a fast surface. That will give them a chance of an upset, while a slow one will ensure their defeat.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:07 pm

Autumnleaf wrote:
Tenez wrote:One can use the stats the way they wish....the fact remain berdych higher ranking is when he was nearly 30, not 25!
You really want to argue that Berdych was any good this year? In the beginning of his career he was beating Nadal regularly to the point that young Nadal said he was always looking in the draw for Berdych. But then Berdych was left behind and is now back to being the whipping boy of every top 10 player. He is 2-10 vs. Top 10 for the year, his only victory coming vs. Nadal at the AO and vs. Raonic by way of retirement. That's how he made MC final and got to No. 4. Big Grin
Remember. Everybody was beating nadal outside clay before they started to slow all courts down (2007). So I woudl certainly not consider beating Nadal on fast surfaces when Nadal was 20 or 21 such a peculiar feat and as I said teh ranking does not lie. Berdych was ranked between 50 and 15 in 2005/6. So clearly he was nowhere as solid as 29+. I am not sure how this can be argued?

At the AO the way Nadal was playing he should have lost to Smyzcek. It wasn't even all that surprising that he got beat by Berdych. Next Berdych got bageled by Murray.
Sure but Nadal shoudl have lost so many more matches he won, which ended in a GS or tournament win. And yes I do not see berdych playing his best this year....but certainly those last 2 years were by far better than 2005, Look at his W/L ratio per year:

W/L
2015 : 55 18 3.055555556
2014 : 55 22 2.5
2013 : 54 25 2.16
2012 : 61 23 2.652173913
2011 : 53 23 2.304347826
2010 : 45 26 1.730769231
2009 : 36 26 1.384615385
2008 : 35 22 1.590909091
2007 : 46 24 1.916666667
2006 : 48 24 2
2005 : 34 29 1.172413793
Someone who loses 1 match for 2 he wins is/was considered a journey man. And he had a considerably worse ratio up to 2010. Only after 2010 that he progressivley gets steadier.....and I like to think that things got only tougher on tour in recent years.


Yesterday he scraped through vs. ERV. Let's see whether he can notch his second legit top 10 win today vs. Tsonga.
I don;t think picking on one match or even one tournament is really relevan. Anything can happen. The yearly W/L ratio is much more telling.

Wawrinka's rise to the top was indeed a surprise, but it's not like he's suddenly challenging for No. 1. He said that he was told early that success would come to him later than to other guys:
My point is that is that's teh case for all those mid 20s player too. You will see them progress considerably from now. I am not saying they'll all progress on the same learning curve but if they are hungry and remain professional, they will be like Gasquet, Berdych, Tsonga, Simon, Stan, better and more consistent. Look at nadal over the last 2 or 3 weeks how much better he was at returning the ball early as well as hitting closer to the baseline.

[i]"A few times I told myself ‘Maybe that’s it, maybe my best ranking is 2008, No  9 in the world, and I’m born to be top-20 for 10 years.’ But Magnus [Norman, Wawrinka’s coach] helped me a lot. We changed a few things in my game, like my forehand. Physically I’m at the top because I’m working with the same fitness trainer. He always told me from the age of 16 and 17 that I am not going to be at the top at 24 like many players, it was going to be later, at 27 or 28."[/i] and he was nearly right. His best was actually 29/30.

I found that very interesting, but I have no idea how that could have been foreseen. Also, doesn't he have the same fitness coach as Federer?
On v2 I wrote a post in 2004 or 5 saying that shotmakers do mature later than retrievers as they have a more complexe game and technique but at that time I also thought 26/7 was peaking time. The truth, or the fact should I say, are that it is clearly a bit later.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Autumnleaf on Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:36 pm

Nishikori with a physical problem again, called the trainer.  erm MTO.

Btw, any idea why he struggles with Gasquet so much? Good defender, but not great, certainly no better than Kei himself. Beautiful backhand, can dominate the BH2BH exchange with Nishikori.

But Gashet has a lot of weaknesses too, especially his tendendy to play passive behind the baseline and his comparatively weak forehand.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:01 pm

Nishi is made of fine china!

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:03 pm

Autumnleaf wrote:Nishikori with a physical problem again, called the trainer.  erm MTO.

Btw, any idea why he struggles with Gasquet so much? Good defender, but not great, certainly no better than Kei himself. Beautiful backhand, can dominate the BH2BH exchange with Nishikori.

But Gashet has a lot of weaknesses too, especially his tendendy to play passive behind the baseline and his comparatively weak forehand.

From what I saw today....it was mental between those 2. Nishi still making too many UEs.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:40 pm

Bercy is too slow even for Nole...

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:45 pm

noleisthebest wrote:Bercy is too slow even for Nole...  

That cannot be possible.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:06 pm

Impossible to win a serve on that surface.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:14 pm

they are both playing badly. Simon coudl have won that second set with a bit more confidence.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:15 pm

5th break in a row ! Impossible to win serves!

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:25 pm

Simon losing 14 successive points on his serve!!!!!! This is a ridiculous surface! This must be a new atp record of modern times!!!

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Daniel on Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:50 pm

Ferrer is glued to the baseline, even when there is a simple approach.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Daniel on Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:51 pm

Tenez wrote:5th break in a row ! Impossible to win serves!

Dimitrov is doing just fine with it,.  Perhaps Simon is just playing crap.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:27 pm

FedererKing wrote:
Tenez wrote:5th break in a row ! Impossible to win serves!

Dimitrov is doing just fine with it,.  Perhaps Simon is just playing crap.
7 breaks in a row 4 from Simon, 3 from Djoko.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Daniel on Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:32 pm

It can happen...  doesn't have to mean the surface is to blame.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:35 pm

The surface is rotten.
The only way out is to take the ball early...it's sad to see that virtually nobody is doing it.


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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:31 pm

Fed looks furious.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by luvsports! on Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:38 pm

Good win for Isner, not too fussed 2bh.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Daniel on Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:38 pm

Good win for Isner, abysmal play at times from Federer.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by noleisthebest on Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:45 pm

luvsports! wrote:Good win for Isner, not too fussed 2bh.
I am very fussed because I wanted to see as much as possible of him this week, he played so magically yesterday.
The surface gave Isner ridiculous extra  bounce on serve, not to mention all the time in the world to even win points from the baseline.

I only saw second half of the third set, but he looked really upset. He was so desperate he even tried SABR. On Isner's second body kick serve!!!!Now that makes my blood boil!

And this is where I wish I were a man so I could swear. Grr Angry

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by AceofDeath on Thu Nov 05, 2015 6:00 pm

The bercy playing surface really encourages me to go blind for some reason

Murray Gasquet Ferrer and Isner all winning oh dear. Now Nadal will win to complete the blinding of my eyes.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Autumnleaf on Thu Nov 05, 2015 6:02 pm

Dito @nitb, also wanted to see more, only Wawrinka or Tsonga can save the tournament now for me. Disappointing from Fed. Isner surely is a tough customer on that court, but that was nothing. A Federer in good shape should still beat him. Abysmal passing shot attempts on Roddick-like approaches from Isner. Those certainly didn't get better. Winking Terrible errors in judgement and leaking errors on important points. Isner not much better, but unlike Federer very solid on serve in the tiebreak.

It seems he felt bad, because he got some pills from the tournament doc after the first set. Commies said might be a head- or stomach problem. Whatever his problems, this is the 4th early exit in a MS1000 this year and that's not counting the 2 he skipped. Not a good result.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Autumnleaf on Thu Nov 05, 2015 6:03 pm

AceofDeath wrote:Now Nadal will win to complete the blinding of my eyes.
 That would be such a joke.  Doh A bad one, to be sure.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Autumnleaf on Thu Nov 05, 2015 6:42 pm

Autumnleaf wrote:It seems he felt bad, because he got some pills from the tournament doc after the first set. Commies said might be a head- or stomach problem.
This is explained now on Twitter: "Federer called trainer because of pain in arm. Took anti-inflammatories & felt no pain in final set as he lost out to the John Isner serve." Said apparently he got problems with right arm since Basel, don't get why he is playing Bercy in that case.  erm Can't be too bad.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:00 pm

Autumnleaf wrote:
Autumnleaf wrote:It seems he felt bad, because he got some pills from the tournament doc after the first set. Commies said might be a head- or stomach problem.
This is explained now on Twitter: "Federer called trainer because of pain in arm. Took anti-inflammatories & felt no pain in final set as he lost out to the John Isner serve." Said apparently he got problems with right arm since Basel, don't get why he is playing Bercy in that case.  erm Can't be too bad.

yes I saw him stretch his arm a few times in Basel too. Well it's one of this little niggle.....he has had many in his career....but his game is so smooth usually that those little sand dust can really affect his game.

the fact he had to hit the ball much harder on those dead courts did not help his injury for sure.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by DECIMA on Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:42 pm

Considering adding Goffin to my retirement list. Bit of a lightweight. But he did well in some challengers last year and Lydian liked him so he avoids it.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Daniel on Fri Nov 06, 2015 5:26 am

I'm actually glad the toerag won for once. Because I was gonna put a few quid on a Isner - Anderson double (which was 20-1).  I'd be really pissed now if I had.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by noleisthebest on Fri Nov 06, 2015 8:34 am

FedererKing wrote:I'm actually glad the toerag won for once. Because I was gonna put a few quid on a Isner - Anderson double (which was 20-1).  I'd be really pissed now if I had.

Amazing what "a few quid" can do to a man! Winking

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Daniel on Fri Nov 06, 2015 9:24 am

It's the amount I stood to win...  Would have been a nice 100 for just 5 stake.  Luckily, I didn't risk it.  I was 2 points away though!

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by noleisthebest on Fri Nov 06, 2015 9:31 am

FedererKing wrote:It's the amount I stood to win...  Would have been a nice 100 for just 5 stake.  Luckily, I didn't risk it.  I was 2 points away though!
My best ever was £55 for the £5 I put on Fognini to beat Nadal, it was that match Bernardes was umpiring in Rio I think.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Fri Nov 06, 2015 9:57 am

Davydenko winning Paris in 2007....At that time it was a very long shot. £5 turned into £360 or so.

I had the feeling that Fed and Nadal would pull out of it..which they did. So I put £5 on Davy and £5 on Safin.

I have had better wins that than but the stakes were considerably bigger. That was in betting days ....around 2007. I don't bet anymore.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Fri Nov 06, 2015 3:52 pm

Tough to see Murray win again thanks to his fitness.

Good game from gasquet though. Force Murray to play with SHBH and it's 61 61 for gasquet.

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by Tenez on Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:18 pm

Gasquet: "I want to be even better next year!"

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

Post by AceofDeath on Fri Nov 06, 2015 9:38 pm

Berdych is still a really big choker. Had Novak on the ropes and was on a higher level than him until he throws it away.

Will Stan keep his Paris winning streak alive?!

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Re: ATP Masters 1000: Paris

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